Potential Effects of Future Climate Changes on Brazilian Cool-Adapted Stoneflies (Insecta: Plecoptera).

The continuous pursuit of welfare and economic development through the exploitation of natural resources by human societies consequently resulted in the ongoing process of climate change. Changes in the distribution of species towards the planet's poles and mountain tops are some of the expected to biological consequences of this process. Here, we assessed the potential effects of future climate change on four cool-adapted Gripopterygidae (Insecta: Plecoptera) species [Gripopteryx garbei Navás 1936, G. cancellata (Pictet 1841), Tupiperla gracilis (Burmeister 1839), and T. tessellata (Brauer 1866)] from Southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. As species adapted to cold conditions, in the future scenarios of climate change, we expected these organisms to shrink/change their distributions ranges towards areas with suitable climatic conditions in Southern Brazilian regions, when compared with their predicted distributions in present climatic conditions. We used seven principal components derived from 19 environmental variables from Worldclim database for the present scenario and also seven principal components obtained from 17 different Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs), considering the most severe emission scenario for green-house gases to predict the species' distributions. Depending on the climatic scenario considered, there were polewards distribution range changes of the species. Additionally, we also observed an important decrease in the amount of protected modeled range for the species in the future scenarios. Considering that this Brazilian region may become hotter in the future and have its precipitation regime changed, as observed in the severe 2013-2014 drought, we believe these species adapted to high altitudes will be severely threatened in the future.