Construction, Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of a Job Exposure Matrix for Early Plutonium Workers at the Sellafield Nuclear Site, United Kingdom.

Plutonium is a radiologically significant alpha-particle emitter. The potential for adverse health effects from internal exposures due to plutonium intakes has been recognized since the 1940s. The workforce of the Sellafield nuclear facility (Cumbria, UK), includes one of the world's most important groups of plutonium-exposed workers for studying the potential health risks of this internal exposure. However, for several hundred workers employed at the start of plutonium work at the facility (1952-1963), historical monitoring records based on measurements of urinary excretion of plutonium are not sufficiently reliable to provide the accurate and unbiased exposure assessments needed for epidemiological studies. Consequently, these early workers have had to be excluded from such studies, significantly reducing their power. We constructed a population-specific quantitative job exposure matrix (JEM) to estimate the average intakes of "typical plutonium workers" in this period, from 1952-1963, and assessed its validity and sensitivity to exposure assessment decisions. We conducted internal cross-validation using an a priori 10% extracted sample to evaluate reliability of estimates, explored JEM sensitivity to assumptions in the exposure assessment, and assessed the impact of uncertainty in urinalysis measurements on the precision of annual intake estimates using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. Pairwise correlations ( R