A caveat on the Savage-Dickey density ratio: The case of computing Bayes factors for regression parameters.
Bayesian model selection
Hypothesis test
Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow prior
general linear model
marginal likelihood
variable selection
Journal
The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology
ISSN: 2044-8317
Titre abrégé: Br J Math Stat Psychol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0004047
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 2019
05 2019
Historique:
received:
31
01
2018
revised:
27
09
2018
pubmed:
20
11
2018
medline:
18
12
2019
entrez:
20
11
2018
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The Savage-Dickey density ratio is a simple method for computing the Bayes factor for an equality constraint on one or more parameters of a statistical model. In regression analysis, this includes the important scenario of testing whether one or more of the covariates have an effect on the dependent variable. However, the Savage-Dickey ratio only provides the correct Bayes factor if the prior distribution of the nuisance parameters under the nested model is identical to the conditional prior under the full model given the equality constraint. This condition is violated for multiple regression models with a Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow prior, which is often used as a default prior in psychology. Besides linear regression models, the limitation of the Savage-Dickey ratio is especially relevant when analytical solutions for the Bayes factor are not available. This is the case for generalized linear models, non-linear models, or cognitive process models with regression extensions. As a remedy, the correct Bayes factor can be computed using a generalized version of the Savage-Dickey density ratio.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
316-333Informations de copyright
© 2018 The British Psychological Society.