A caveat on the Savage-Dickey density ratio: The case of computing Bayes factors for regression parameters.

Bayesian model selection Hypothesis test Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow prior general linear model marginal likelihood variable selection

Journal

The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology
ISSN: 2044-8317
Titre abrégé: Br J Math Stat Psychol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0004047

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
05 2019
Historique:
received: 31 01 2018
revised: 27 09 2018
pubmed: 20 11 2018
medline: 18 12 2019
entrez: 20 11 2018
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

The Savage-Dickey density ratio is a simple method for computing the Bayes factor for an equality constraint on one or more parameters of a statistical model. In regression analysis, this includes the important scenario of testing whether one or more of the covariates have an effect on the dependent variable. However, the Savage-Dickey ratio only provides the correct Bayes factor if the prior distribution of the nuisance parameters under the nested model is identical to the conditional prior under the full model given the equality constraint. This condition is violated for multiple regression models with a Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow prior, which is often used as a default prior in psychology. Besides linear regression models, the limitation of the Savage-Dickey ratio is especially relevant when analytical solutions for the Bayes factor are not available. This is the case for generalized linear models, non-linear models, or cognitive process models with regression extensions. As a remedy, the correct Bayes factor can be computed using a generalized version of the Savage-Dickey density ratio.

Identifiants

pubmed: 30451277
doi: 10.1111/bmsp.12150
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

316-333

Informations de copyright

© 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Auteurs

Daniel W Heck (DW)

Statistical Modeling in Psychology, University of Mannheim, Germany.

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