Nomogram for Predicting Individual Survival After Recurrence of Advanced-Stage, High-Grade Ovarian Carcinoma.

To analyze clinical prognostic factors for survival after recurrence of high-grade, advanced-stage ovarian-peritoneal-tubal carcinoma and to develop a nomogram to predict individual survival after recurrence. We retrospectively analyzed patients treated in multicenter Gynecologic Oncology Group protocols for stage III and IV ovarian-peritoneal-tubal carcinoma who underwent primary debulking surgery, received chemotherapy with paclitaxel and a platinum compound, and subsequently developed recurrence. Prognostic factors affecting survival were identified and used to develop a nomogram, which was both internally and externally validated. There were 4,739 patients included in this analysis, of whom, 84% had stage III and 16% had stage IV ovarian carcinoma. At a median follow-up of 88.8 months (95% CI 86.2-92.0 months), the vast majority of patients (89.4%) had died. The median survival after recurrence was 21.4 months (95% CI 20.5-21.9 months). Time to recurrence after initial chemotherapy, clear cell or mucinous histology, performance status, stage IV disease, and age were significant variables used to develop a nomogram for survival after recurrence, which had a concordance index of 0.67. The time to recurrence alone accounted for 85% of the prognostic information. Similar results were found for patients who underwent second look laparotomy and had a complete pathologic response or received intraperitoneal chemotherapy. For individuals with advanced-stage ovarian carcinoma who recur after standard first-line therapy, estimated survivals after recurrence are closely related to the time to recurrence after chemotherapy and prognostic variables can be used to predict subsequent survival. ClinialTrials.gov, NCT00002568, NCT00837993, NCT00002717, NCT01074398, and NCT00011986.