Past and Future Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Based on Modeling of Population-Based Data.

Administrative Claims, Healthcare Adolescent Adult Age Distribution Canada / epidemiology Child Child, Preschool Databases, Factual Female Forecasting History, 21st Century Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Inflammatory Bowel Diseases / diagnosis Male Middle Aged Models, Statistical Prevalence Retrospective Studies Sex Distribution Time Factors Young Adult

Crohn Disease Epidemiology Forecast Modeling Ulcerative Colitis

Journal

Gastroenterology

ISSN: 1528-0012

Titre abrégé: Gastroenterology

Pays: United States

ID NLM: 0374630

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Apr 2019

Historique:

received: 21 07 2018

revised: 03 12 2018

accepted: 02 01 2019

pubmed: 15 1 2019

medline: 6 5 2019

entrez: 15 1 2019

Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND & AIMS OBJECTIVE

METHODS METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression.

RESULTS RESULTS

In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030.

CONCLUSION CONCLUSIONS

Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.01.002 PMID: 30639677

pubmed: 30639677

pii: S0016-5085(19)30021-6

doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.01.002

pii:

doi:

Types de publication

Historical Article Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

Pagination

1345-1353.e4

Subventions

Organisme : CIHR

ID : 153420

Pays : Canada