Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017.
Bayesian statistics
Global population ageing
Spatiotemporal evolution
Journal
BMC public health
ISSN: 1471-2458
Titre abrégé: BMC Public Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968562
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
30 Jan 2019
30 Jan 2019
Historique:
received:
21
11
2018
accepted:
21
01
2019
entrez:
1
2
2019
pubmed:
1
2
2019
medline:
26
4
2019
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide. All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions. Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing-Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK-whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113-3.214), 3.071 (3.018-3.122), 2.951 (2.903-3.001), 2.932 (2.880-2.984) and 2.917 (2.869-2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased. The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide.
METHODS
METHODS
All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing-Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK-whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113-3.214), 3.071 (3.018-3.122), 2.951 (2.903-3.001), 2.932 (2.880-2.984) and 2.917 (2.869-2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.
Identifiants
pubmed: 30700286
doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-6465-2
pii: 10.1186/s12889-019-6465-2
pmc: PMC6354390
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
127Subventions
Organisme : National Social Science Fund of China
ID : 15BTJ012
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