Increased infection severity in downstream cities in infectious disease transmission and tourists surveillance analysis.
City
Human mobility
Infectious disease transmission
SIR model
Severity increase percentage
Travel pattern
Journal
Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 06 2019
07 06 2019
Historique:
received:
28
09
2018
revised:
28
02
2019
accepted:
04
03
2019
pubmed:
10
3
2019
medline:
10
7
2020
entrez:
10
3
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Infectious disease severely threatens human life. Human mobility and travel patterns influence the spread of infection between cities and countries. We find that the infection severity in downstream cities during outbreaks is related to transmission rate, recovery rate, travel rate, travel duration and the average number of person-to-person contacts per day. The peak value of the infected population in downstream cities is slightly higher than that in source cities. However, as the number of cities increases, the severity increase percentage during outbreaks between end and source cities is constant. The surveillance of important nodes connecting cities, such as airports and train stations, can help delay the occurrence time of infection outbreaks. The city-entry surveillance of hub cities is not only useful to these cities, but also to cities that are strongly connected (i.e., have a high travel rate) to them. The city-exit surveillance of hub cities contributes to other downstream cities, but only slightly to itself. Surveillance conducted in hub cities is highly efficient in controlling infection transmission. Only strengthening the individual immunity of frequent travellers is not efficient for infection control. However, reducing the number of person-to-person contacts per day effectively limits the spread of infection.
Identifiants
pubmed: 30851275
pii: S0022-5193(19)30097-9
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.03.004
pmc: PMC7094123
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
20-29Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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