The effects of multiyear and seasonal weather factors on incidence of Lyme disease and its vector in New York State.
Climate change
I. Scapularis
Lyme disease
New York State
Ticks
Journal
The Science of the total environment
ISSN: 1879-1026
Titre abrégé: Sci Total Environ
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 0330500
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
15 May 2019
15 May 2019
Historique:
received:
15
08
2018
revised:
12
01
2019
accepted:
07
02
2019
entrez:
22
3
2019
pubmed:
22
3
2019
medline:
17
4
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
More frequent extreme weather and warmer weather due to climate change might change the spatiotemporal distributions of vector-borne diseases, including Lyme disease. However, limited studies have examined the associations of Lyme disease and its vectors with weather factors, especially multi-year and multi-weather factors related to vector life cycle. We investigated the associations between multi-year, unique weather indicators (relevant to tick and host activities) and Lyme disease incidence or documented I. scapularis encounters in New York State (NYS). Using a generalized estimating equation model, we linked Lyme disease and tick (I. scapularis) data, obtained from the NYS Department of Health (NYSDOH) Communicable Disease Surveillance and Tick Identification Service, with weather data. We used a season-specific exposure index by considering days in different seasons with certain temperature and precipitation ranges, summer Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, and fitted linear regression models using generalized estimating equations. Lyme disease and I. scapularis encounters were modestly correlated (Spearman correlation = 0.60, p-value <0.001). The results indicate that summer Lyme disease cases and tick encounters may increase by 4-10%, per one day in spring with a minimum temperature range between 40 and 50 °F in the year of diagnosis and previous year. A day increase in summer with maximum temperature > 75 °F in the previous year was associated with 2% increase in summer disease counts. Mild winter days were associated with an increase in summer tick encounters. Extended spring and summer days and mild winter temperatures appear to increase Lyme disease cases and tick exposure risk in NYS.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
More frequent extreme weather and warmer weather due to climate change might change the spatiotemporal distributions of vector-borne diseases, including Lyme disease. However, limited studies have examined the associations of Lyme disease and its vectors with weather factors, especially multi-year and multi-weather factors related to vector life cycle.
OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVE
We investigated the associations between multi-year, unique weather indicators (relevant to tick and host activities) and Lyme disease incidence or documented I. scapularis encounters in New York State (NYS).
METHODS
METHODS
Using a generalized estimating equation model, we linked Lyme disease and tick (I. scapularis) data, obtained from the NYS Department of Health (NYSDOH) Communicable Disease Surveillance and Tick Identification Service, with weather data. We used a season-specific exposure index by considering days in different seasons with certain temperature and precipitation ranges, summer Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, and fitted linear regression models using generalized estimating equations.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Lyme disease and I. scapularis encounters were modestly correlated (Spearman correlation = 0.60, p-value <0.001). The results indicate that summer Lyme disease cases and tick encounters may increase by 4-10%, per one day in spring with a minimum temperature range between 40 and 50 °F in the year of diagnosis and previous year. A day increase in summer with maximum temperature > 75 °F in the previous year was associated with 2% increase in summer disease counts. Mild winter days were associated with an increase in summer tick encounters.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Extended spring and summer days and mild winter temperatures appear to increase Lyme disease cases and tick exposure risk in NYS.
Identifiants
pubmed: 30893749
pii: S0048-9697(19)30605-9
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.123
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1182-1188Subventions
Organisme : NIEHS NIH HHS
ID : R15 ES028000
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.