Over-exploitation of natural resources is followed by inevitable declines in economic growth and discount rate.


Journal

Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
29 03 2019
Historique:
received: 08 08 2018
accepted: 25 02 2019
entrez: 31 3 2019
pubmed: 31 3 2019
medline: 31 3 2019
Statut: epublish

Résumé

A major challenge in environmental policymaking is determining whether and how fast our society should adopt sustainable management methods. These decisions may have long-lasting effects on the environment, and therefore, they depend critically on the discount factor, which determines the relative values given to future environmental goods compared to present ones. The discount factor has been a major focus of debate in recent decades, and nevertheless, the potential effect of the environment and its management on the discount factor has been largely ignored. Here we show that to maximize social welfare, policymakers need to consider discount factors that depend on changes in natural resource harvest at the global scale. Particularly, the more our society over-harvests today, the more policymakers should discount the near future, but the less they should discount the far future. This results in a novel discount formula that implies significantly higher values for future environmental goods.

Identifiants

pubmed: 30926790
doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09246-2
pii: 10.1038/s41467-019-09246-2
pmc: PMC6440997
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Pagination

1419

Références

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Auteurs

Adam Lampert (A)

School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA. adam.lampert@asu.edu.
Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Science Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA. adam.lampert@asu.edu.

Classifications MeSH