Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony.
Journal
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
ISSN: 1935-2735
Titre abrégé: PLoS Negl Trop Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101291488
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2019
04 2019
Historique:
received:
15
11
2018
accepted:
29
03
2019
revised:
02
05
2019
pubmed:
23
4
2019
medline:
19
9
2019
entrez:
23
4
2019
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years. Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterise the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period. We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence. This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31009460
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012
pii: PNTD-D-18-01797
pmc: PMC6497439
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0007012Subventions
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U01 GM110721
Pays : United States
Organisme : NICHD NIH HHS
ID : T32 HD040128
Pays : United States
Organisme : NLM NIH HHS
ID : R01 LM010812
Pays : United States
Organisme : NLM NIH HHS
ID : R01 LM011965
Pays : United States
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Références
Evol Appl. 2017 Nov 05;11(4):516-533
pubmed: 29636803
Am J Epidemiol. 2007 Jun 15;165(12):1434-42
pubmed: 17369609
PLoS One. 2017 Jul 17;12(7):e0180715
pubmed: 28715435
Expert Rev Vaccines. 2016 Jul;15(7):795-8
pubmed: 27171845
Trop Med Health. 2011 Dec;39(4 Suppl):3-11
pubmed: 22500131
Sci Rep. 2017 Nov 9;7(1):15216
pubmed: 29123142
Nature. 2001 Dec 13;414(6865):716-23
pubmed: 11742391
Trop Med Int Health. 2014 Feb;19(2):159-68
pubmed: 24286460
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2016 Feb;49(1):4-10
pubmed: 26689277
Am Nat. 2004 Aug;164(2):267-81
pubmed: 15278849
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 May 18;10(5):e0004705
pubmed: 27192405
Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Jan;11(1):48-53
pubmed: 15705322
Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Nov;16(11):1237-1245
pubmed: 27593584
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Apr 17;8(4):e2769
pubmed: 24743730
Science. 2016 Jul 22;353(6297):353-4
pubmed: 27417493
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Sep 11;8(9):e3138
pubmed: 25211127
Science. 2006 Apr 21;312(5772):447-51
pubmed: 16574822
Nature. 2004 Jan 22;427(6972):344-7
pubmed: 14737166
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Jul 27;4(7):e766
pubmed: 20668540
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Sep 22;112(38):11887-92
pubmed: 26351662
Elife. 2015 Jun 30;4:e08347
pubmed: 26126267
Nature. 2013 Apr 25;496(7446):504-7
pubmed: 23563266
Euro Surveill. 2016 May 19;21(20):
pubmed: 27239817
Science. 2017 Mar 24;355(6331):1302-1306
pubmed: 28336667
Cad Saude Publica. 2009;25 Suppl 1:S7-18
pubmed: 19287868
Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2017 May;20Suppl 01(Suppl 01):205-216
pubmed: 28658384
Epidemics. 2019 Mar;26:86-94
pubmed: 30327253
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2007 Nov;22(5):358-63
pubmed: 18198045
Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Aug;16(8):935-41
pubmed: 27091092
Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Feb;22(2):336-9
pubmed: 26812472
Lancet. 2016 Mar 12;387(10023):1052-1053
pubmed: 26944024
Emerg Infect Dis. 2013 Jun;19(6):945-53
pubmed: 23735713
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Oct 20;112(42):13069-74
pubmed: 26438851
Br Med Bull. 2010;95:161-73
pubmed: 20616106