Multicenter Validation of the Survival After Acute Civilian Penetrating Brain Injuries (SPIN) Score.
Gunshot wound
Outcome prediction
Penetrating brain injury
Prediction model
Traumatic brain injury
Journal
Neurosurgery
ISSN: 1524-4040
Titre abrégé: Neurosurgery
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7802914
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 11 2019
01 11 2019
Historique:
received:
16
07
2018
accepted:
28
03
2019
pubmed:
9
5
2019
medline:
31
3
2020
entrez:
9
5
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Civilian penetrating traumatic brain injury (pTBI) is a serious public health problem in the United States, but predictors of outcome remain largely understudied. We previously developed the Survival After Acute Civilian Penetrating Brain Injuries (SPIN) score, a logistic, regression-based risk stratification scale for estimating in-hospital and 6-mo survival after civilian pTBI with excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC-ROC = 0.96]) and calibration, but it has not been validated. To validate the SPIN score in a multicenter cohort. We identified pTBI patients from 3 United States level-1 trauma centers. The SPIN score variables (motor Glasgow Coma Scale [mGCS], sex, admission pupillary reactivity, self-inflicted pTBI, transfer status, injury severity score, and admission international normalized ratio [INR]) were retrospectively collected from local trauma registries and chart review. Using the original SPIN score multivariable logistic regression model, AUC-ROC analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit testing were performed to determine discrimination and calibration. Of 362 pTBI patients available for analysis, 105 patients were lacking INR, leaving 257 patients for the full SPIN model validation. Discrimination (AUC-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit, P value = .58) were excellent. In a post hoc sensitivity analysis, we removed INR from the SPIN model to include all 362 patients (SPINNo-INR), still resulting in very good discrimination (AUC-ROC = 0.82), but reduced calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit, P value = .04). This multicenter pTBI study confirmed that the full SPIN score predicts survival after civilian pTBI with excellent discrimination and calibration. Admission INR significantly adds to the prediction model discrimination and should be routinely measured in pTBI patients.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Civilian penetrating traumatic brain injury (pTBI) is a serious public health problem in the United States, but predictors of outcome remain largely understudied. We previously developed the Survival After Acute Civilian Penetrating Brain Injuries (SPIN) score, a logistic, regression-based risk stratification scale for estimating in-hospital and 6-mo survival after civilian pTBI with excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC-ROC = 0.96]) and calibration, but it has not been validated.
OBJECTIVE
To validate the SPIN score in a multicenter cohort.
METHODS
We identified pTBI patients from 3 United States level-1 trauma centers. The SPIN score variables (motor Glasgow Coma Scale [mGCS], sex, admission pupillary reactivity, self-inflicted pTBI, transfer status, injury severity score, and admission international normalized ratio [INR]) were retrospectively collected from local trauma registries and chart review. Using the original SPIN score multivariable logistic regression model, AUC-ROC analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit testing were performed to determine discrimination and calibration.
RESULTS
Of 362 pTBI patients available for analysis, 105 patients were lacking INR, leaving 257 patients for the full SPIN model validation. Discrimination (AUC-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit, P value = .58) were excellent. In a post hoc sensitivity analysis, we removed INR from the SPIN model to include all 362 patients (SPINNo-INR), still resulting in very good discrimination (AUC-ROC = 0.82), but reduced calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit, P value = .04).
CONCLUSION
This multicenter pTBI study confirmed that the full SPIN score predicts survival after civilian pTBI with excellent discrimination and calibration. Admission INR significantly adds to the prediction model discrimination and should be routinely measured in pTBI patients.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31065707
pii: 5486578
doi: 10.1093/neuros/nyz127
pmc: PMC6904849
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
E872-E879Subventions
Organisme : NICHD NIH HHS
ID : K23 HD080971
Pays : United States
Organisme : NCATS NIH HHS
ID : UL1 TR001863
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons.
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