Measles and the canonical path to elimination.
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 05 2019
10 05 2019
Historique:
received:
29
06
2018
accepted:
11
04
2019
entrez:
11
5
2019
pubmed:
11
5
2019
medline:
18
12
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. We find that as countries progress toward these goals, they undergo predictable changes in the size and frequency of measles outbreaks. A country's position on this "canonical path" is driven by both measles control activities and demographic factors, which combine to change the effective size of the measles-susceptible population, thereby driving the country through theoretically established dynamic regimes. Further, position on the path to elimination provides critical information for guiding vaccination efforts, such as the age profile of susceptibility, that could only otherwise be obtained through costly field studies or sophisticated analysis. Equipped with this information, countries can gain insight into their current and future measles epidemiology and select appropriate strategies to more quickly achieve elimination goals.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31073065
pii: 364/6440/584
doi: 10.1126/science.aau6299
pmc: PMC7745123
doi:
Substances chimiques
Measles Vaccine
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
584-587Subventions
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U01 GM110744
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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