A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens.
census-travel model
contagion
exotic
introductions
Journal
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
ISSN: 1471-2970
Titre abrégé: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7503623
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 07 2019
08 07 2019
Historique:
entrez:
21
5
2019
pubmed:
21
5
2019
medline:
29
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
International travel offers an extensive network for new and recurring human-mediated introductions of exotic infectious pathogens and biota, freeing geographical constraints. We present a predictive census-travel model that integrates international travel with endpoint census data and epidemiological characteristics to predict points of introduction. Population demographics, inbound and outbound travel patterns, and quantification of source strength by country are combined to estimate and rank risk of introduction at user-scalable land parcel areas (e.g. state, county, zip code, census tract, gridded landscapes (1 mi
Identifiants
pubmed: 31104596
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0260
pmc: PMC6558561
doi:
Banques de données
figshare
['10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4457795']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
20180260Références
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