Modelling the potential prevention benefits of a treat-all hepatitis C treatment strategy at global, regional and country levels: A modelling study.
DAA
HCV
averted
infections
treat
Journal
Journal of viral hepatitis
ISSN: 1365-2893
Titre abrégé: J Viral Hepat
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9435672
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2019
12 2019
Historique:
received:
27
02
2019
revised:
01
07
2019
accepted:
15
07
2019
pubmed:
9
8
2019
medline:
21
7
2020
entrez:
9
8
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The World Health Organization (WHO) recently produced guidelines advising a treat-all policy for HCV to encourage widespread treatment scale-up for achieving HCV elimination. We modelled the prevention impact achieved (HCV infections averted [IA]) from initiating this policy compared with treating different subgroups at country, regional and global levels. We assessed what country-level factors affect impact. A dynamic, deterministic HCV transmission model was calibrated to data from global systematic reviews and UN data sets to simulate country-level HCV epidemics with ongoing levels of treatment. For each country, the model projected the prevention impact (in HCV IA per treatment undertaken) of initiating four treatment strategies; either selected randomly (treat-all) or targeted among people who inject drugs (PWID), people aged ≥35, or those with cirrhosis. The IA was assessed over 20 years. Linear regression was used to identify associations between IA per treatment and demographic factors. Eighty-eight countries (85% of the global population) were modelled. Globally, the model estimated 0.35 (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.16-0.61) IA over 20 years for every randomly allocated treatment, 0.30 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.53) from treating those aged ≥35 and 0.28 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.49) for those with cirrhosis. Globally, treating PWID achieved 1.27 (95%CrI: 0.68-2.04) IA per treatment. The IA per randomly allocated treatment was positively associated with a country's population growth rate and negatively associated with higher HCV prevalence among PWID. In conclusion, appreciable prevention benefits could be achieved from WHO's treat-all strategy, although greater benefits per treatment can be achieved through targeting PWID. Higher impact will be achieved in countries with high population growth.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31392812
doi: 10.1111/jvh.13187
pmc: PMC10401696
mid: NIHMS1919966
doi:
Substances chimiques
Antiviral Agents
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1388-1403Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : P30 AI036214
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R01 DA037773
Pays : United States
Organisme : Department of Health
ID : RP-DG-0610-10055
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Department of Health
ID : RP-PG-0616-20008
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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