Mapping the effects of drought on child stunting.


Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
27 08 2019
Historique:
pubmed: 14 8 2019
medline: 25 3 2020
entrez: 14 8 2019
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

As climate change continues, it is expected to have increasingly adverse impacts on child nutrition outcomes, and these impacts will be moderated by a variety of governmental, economic, infrastructural, and environmental factors. To date, attempts to map the vulnerability of food systems to climate change and drought have focused on mapping these factors but have not incorporated observations of historic climate shocks and nutrition outcomes. We significantly improve on these approaches by using over 580,000 observations of children from 53 countries to examine how precipitation extremes since 1990 have affected nutrition outcomes. We show that precipitation extremes and drought in particular are associated with worse child nutrition. We further show that the effects of drought on child undernutrition are mitigated or amplified by a variety of factors that affect both the adaptive capacity and sensitivity of local food systems with respect to shocks. Finally, we estimate a model drawing on historical observations of drought, geographic conditions, and nutrition outcomes to make a global map of where child stunting would be expected to increase under drought based on current conditions. As climate change makes drought more commonplace and more severe, these results will aid policymakers by highlighting which areas are most vulnerable as well as which factors contribute the most to creating resilient food systems.

Identifiants

pubmed: 31405971
pii: 1905228116
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1905228116
pmc: PMC6717288
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

17219-17224

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Auteurs

Matthew W Cooper (MW)

Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202.

Molly E Brown (ME)

Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.

Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler (S)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

Georg Pflug (G)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

Ian McCallum (I)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

Steffen Fritz (S)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

Julie Silva (J)

Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.

Alexander Zvoleff (A)

Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202 mattcoop@terpmail.umd.edu.

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Classifications MeSH