The future burden of obesity in Canada: a modelling study.
Chronic disease
Community health planning
Forecasting
Obesity
Population health
Journal
Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique
ISSN: 1920-7476
Titre abrégé: Can J Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 0372714
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2019
12 2019
Historique:
received:
12
03
2019
accepted:
16
07
2019
pubmed:
21
8
2019
medline:
10
4
2020
entrez:
21
8
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We applied the validated Obesity Population Risk Tool (OPoRT) to estimate the future burden of obesity in Canada using baseline risk factors attained through routinely collected survey data. OPoRT was developed using logistic regression with sex-specific generalized estimating equations to predict the 10-year prevalence of obesity (outcome BMI ≥ 30.0) among adults 18 and older. The algorithm includes 17 predictive factors, including socio-demographic and health behavioural characteristics. OPoRT demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-statistic ≥ 0.89) and achieved calibration. We applied OPoRT to Canadian Community Health Survey (2013/14) data to predict the future prevalence of obesity in Canada for a variety of population subgroups. The predicted burden of obesity grew from 261 cases per 1000 in 2013/14 to 326 cases per 1000 in 2023/24 corresponding to a total of 8.54 million individuals with obesity. The burden is expected to be higher among males (347 cases per 1000) than females (305 cases per 1000). Individuals aged 35-49 had the highest predicted burden of obesity (374 cases per 1000) and the largest number of predicted cases (2.42 million), while individuals in the ≥ 65 age group had the lowest predicted burden (236 cases per 1000). The number of individuals with obesity per 1000 is highest among those severely food insecure (452 cases per 1000), compared with food secure individuals (324 cases per 1000). OPoRT can be used to estimate the future population burden of obesity, to identify priority subgroups at an elevated risk. Burden estimates should be reflected in approaches to curb the future burden of obesity.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31429040
doi: 10.17269/s41997-019-00251-y
pii: 10.17269/s41997-019-00251-y
pmc: PMC6900264
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
768-778Subventions
Organisme : CIHR
ID : MOP137130
Pays : Canada
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