Predictive parameters for the clinical course of Crohn's disease: development of a simple and reliable risk model.

The aim of our study was to identify clinical parameters in recently diagnosed Crohn's disease (CD) patients for prediction of their disease course. EPIC (Early Predictive parameters of Immunosuppressive therapy in Crohn's disease) is a prospective, observational study in 341 patients with a recent CD diagnosis (≤ 6 months), and naïve to immunosuppressants (IS) and anti-tumor necrosis factor α (TNF) agents. Patient characteristics were documented up to 2 years. In line with national and international guidelines, a complicated disease course was defined as need for immunosuppressants and/or anti-TNF agents, and CD-related hospitalization with or without immunosuppressants and/or anti-TNF agents. A total of 212 CD patients were analyzed of whom 57 (27%) had an uncomplicated disease within 24 months, while 155 (73%) had a complicated disease course: need for IS and/or anti-TNF agents (N = 115), CD-related hospitalization with or without IS/anti-TNF agents (N = 40). Identified risk predictors for a complicated disease were as follows: age at onset < 40 years (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.2-4.5), anemia (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.2), and treatment with systemic corticosteroids at first flare (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.7). These three parameters were used to develop a risk model allowing prediction of the future disease course. Our three-parameter model enables an assessment of each CD patient's risk to develop a complicated disease course. Due to the easy accessibility of these parameters, this model can be utilized in daily clinical care to assist selecting the initial treatment for each individual patient.