Long-term Risk of Malignancy in Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.
Adenocarcinoma, Mucinous
/ epidemiology
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal
/ epidemiology
Chromogranins
/ genetics
Disease Progression
Female
Follow-Up Studies
GTP-Binding Protein alpha Subunits, Gs
/ genetics
Humans
Incidence
Japan
/ epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Mutation
Neoplasms, Multiple Primary
/ epidemiology
Pancreatic Ducts
/ pathology
Pancreatic Intraductal Neoplasms
/ pathology
Pancreatic Neoplasms
/ epidemiology
Proto-Oncogene Proteins p21(ras)
/ genetics
Risk Factors
Cohort
Neoplasm
Pancreatic Cancer
Prognostic Factor
Journal
Gastroenterology
ISSN: 1528-0012
Titre abrégé: Gastroenterology
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0374630
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 2020
01 2020
Historique:
received:
02
04
2019
revised:
12
08
2019
accepted:
21
08
2019
pubmed:
2
9
2019
medline:
15
2
2020
entrez:
2
9
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Long-term outcomes of patients with branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), particularly those after 5 years of surveillance, have not been fully evaluated in large studies. We analyzed incidences of IPMN-derived carcinoma and concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) over 20 years in a large population of patients. We identified 1404 consecutive patients (52% women; mean age, 67.5 years) with a diagnosis of branch-duct IPMN, from 1994 through 2017, at the University of Tokyo in Japan. Using a competing risk analysis, we estimated cumulative incidence of pancreatic carcinoma, overall and by carcinoma type. We used competing risks proportional hazards models to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) for incidences of carcinomas. To differentiate IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas, we collected genomic DNA from available paired samples of IPMNs and carcinomas and detected mutations in GNAS and KRAS by polymerase chain reaction and pyrosequencing. During 9231 person-years of follow-up, we identified 68 patients with pancreatic carcinomas (38 patients with IPMN-derived carcinomas and 30 patients with concomitant PDACs); the overall incidence rates were 3.3%, 6.6%, and 15.0% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Among 804 patients followed more than 5 years, overall cumulative incidence rates of pancreatic carcinoma were 3.5% at 10 years and 12.0% at 15 years from the initial diagnosis. The size of the IPMN and the diameter of the main pancreatic duct associated with incidence of IPMN-derived carcinoma (SHR 1.85; 95% confidence interval 1.38-2.48 for a 10-mm increase in the IPMN size and SHR 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.33-1.83 for a 1-mm increase in the main pancreatic duct diameter) but not with incidence of concomitant PDAC. In a large long-term study of patients with branch-duct IPMNs, we found the 5-year incidence rate of pancreatic malignancy to be 3.3%, reaching 15.0% at 15 years after IPMN diagnosis. We observed heterogeneous risk factor profiles between IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND & AIMS
Long-term outcomes of patients with branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), particularly those after 5 years of surveillance, have not been fully evaluated in large studies. We analyzed incidences of IPMN-derived carcinoma and concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) over 20 years in a large population of patients.
METHODS
We identified 1404 consecutive patients (52% women; mean age, 67.5 years) with a diagnosis of branch-duct IPMN, from 1994 through 2017, at the University of Tokyo in Japan. Using a competing risk analysis, we estimated cumulative incidence of pancreatic carcinoma, overall and by carcinoma type. We used competing risks proportional hazards models to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) for incidences of carcinomas. To differentiate IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas, we collected genomic DNA from available paired samples of IPMNs and carcinomas and detected mutations in GNAS and KRAS by polymerase chain reaction and pyrosequencing.
RESULTS
During 9231 person-years of follow-up, we identified 68 patients with pancreatic carcinomas (38 patients with IPMN-derived carcinomas and 30 patients with concomitant PDACs); the overall incidence rates were 3.3%, 6.6%, and 15.0% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Among 804 patients followed more than 5 years, overall cumulative incidence rates of pancreatic carcinoma were 3.5% at 10 years and 12.0% at 15 years from the initial diagnosis. The size of the IPMN and the diameter of the main pancreatic duct associated with incidence of IPMN-derived carcinoma (SHR 1.85; 95% confidence interval 1.38-2.48 for a 10-mm increase in the IPMN size and SHR 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.33-1.83 for a 1-mm increase in the main pancreatic duct diameter) but not with incidence of concomitant PDAC.
CONCLUSIONS
In a large long-term study of patients with branch-duct IPMNs, we found the 5-year incidence rate of pancreatic malignancy to be 3.3%, reaching 15.0% at 15 years after IPMN diagnosis. We observed heterogeneous risk factor profiles between IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31473224
pii: S0016-5085(19)41257-2
doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.08.032
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Chromogranins
0
KRAS protein, human
0
GNAS protein, human
EC 3.6.1.-
GTP-Binding Protein alpha Subunits, Gs
EC 3.6.5.1
Proto-Oncogene Proteins p21(ras)
EC 3.6.5.2
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
226-237.e5Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.