Spatial distribution and risk factors for foot and mouth disease virus in Uganda: Opportunities for strategic surveillance.
Bayesian statistics
Foot and mouth disease
Risk factors
Spatial analysis
Uganda
Journal
Preventive veterinary medicine
ISSN: 1873-1716
Titre abrégé: Prev Vet Med
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8217463
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Nov 2019
01 Nov 2019
Historique:
received:
25
02
2019
revised:
23
07
2019
accepted:
31
08
2019
pubmed:
22
9
2019
medline:
5
3
2020
entrez:
22
9
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has a substantial impact on cattle populations in Uganda, causing short- and long-term production losses and hampering local and international trade. Although FMDV has persisted in Uganda for at least 60 years, its epidemiology there and in other endemic settings remains poorly understood. Here, we utilized a large-scale cross-sectional study of cattle to elucidate the dynamics of FMDV spread in Uganda. Sera samples (n = 14,439) from 211 herds were analyzed for non-structural protein reactivity, an indication of past FMDV exposure. Serological results were used to determine spatial patterns, and a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model was used to identify risk factors for FMDV infection. Spatial clustering of the disease was evident, with higher risk demonstrated near international borders. Additionally, high cattle density, low annual rainfall, and pastoralism were associated with increased likelihood of FMD seropositivity. These results provide insights into the complex epidemiology of FMDV in Uganda and will help inform refined control strategies in Uganda and other FMDV-endemic settings.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31541845
pii: S0167-5877(19)30120-5
doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104766
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
104766Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.