Recent rapid changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of West Nile Neuro-invasive Disease in Italy.
West Nile Neuro-invasive Disease
West Nile Virus
spatio-temporal pattern
Journal
Zoonoses and public health
ISSN: 1863-2378
Titre abrégé: Zoonoses Public Health
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101300786
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
02 2020
02 2020
Historique:
received:
02
02
2019
revised:
12
07
2019
accepted:
13
09
2019
pubmed:
16
10
2019
medline:
7
1
2021
entrez:
16
10
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
In Italy, the first human case of West Nile Virus (WNV) infection was reported in 2008 and, since then, the number of cases has been steadily increasing. In this study, we describe the temporal and spatial pattern of WNV infection risk among humans in Italy, focusing on the human cases of West Nile Neuro-invasive Disease (WNND) observed between 2008 and 2017. Incidence rates are estimated for each year and province under study. The incidence temporal trend is estimated using Poisson regression, and a spatio-temporal cluster detection analysis is performed to detect high-risk areas. In total, 231 WNND cases were notified in Italy between 2008 and 2017. The annual incidence rates increased during the study period (annual percentage change: 11.7%; 95%CI: -0.9%; 26.1%). A geographical spread of the disease was observed during the study period throughout Northern Italy, with an increasing number of affected provinces. Provinces close to the Po River (the main river in the north of Italy) and the Oristano province (in the Sardinia Island) experienced the highest incidence rates during the study period. Our study shows a gradual, but rapid spread of WNND across Northern Italy from east to west and suggests the hypothesis that provinces close to Po River might present ecological and climatic conditions favourable to the virus circulation.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
54-61Informations de copyright
© 2019 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
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