Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk-Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard.
Homeland security research
benefit-cost analysis
risk informed
signal detection
value of information
Journal
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
ISSN: 1539-6924
Titre abrégé: Risk Anal
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 8109978
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2020
03 2020
Historique:
received:
22
08
2018
revised:
23
07
2019
accepted:
27
08
2019
pubmed:
16
10
2019
medline:
16
10
2019
entrez:
16
10
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
This article describes a methodology for risk-informed benefit-cost analyses of homeland security research products. The methodology is field-tested with 10 research products developed for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk-informed benefit-cost analysis is a tool for risk management that integrates elements of risk analysis, decision analysis, and benefit-cost analysis. The cost analysis methodology includes a full-cost accounting of research projects, starting with initial fundamental research costs and extending to the costs of implementation of the research products and, where applicable, training, maintenance, and upgrade costs. The benefits analysis methodology is driven by changes in costs and risks leading to five alternative models: cost savings at the same level of security, increased security at the same cost, signal detection improvements, risk reduction by deterrence, and value of information. The U.S. Coast Guard staff selected 10 research projects to test and generalize the methodology. Examples include tools to improve the detection of explosives, reduce the costs of harbor patrols, and provide better predictions of hurricane wind speeds and floods. Benefits models and estimates varied by research project and many input parameters of the benefit estimates were highly uncertain, so risk analysis for sensitivity testing and simulation was important. Aggregating across the 10 research products, we found an overall median net present value of about $385 million, with a range from $54 million (5th percentile) to $877 million (95th percentile). Lessons learned are provided for future applications.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
450-475Subventions
Organisme : Office of University Programs, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
ID : HSHQDC-10-BOA19/HSHQDC-16-J-00467
Pays : International
Informations de copyright
© 2019 Society for Risk Analysis.
Références
Adams, C. R., & Berri, D. J. (1999). The economic cost of hurricane evacuations. Proceedings of the First U.S. Weather Research Program Science Symposium. Retrieved from http://box/mmm.ucar.edu/uswrp/abstracts/Adams_Christopher.htm
Aven, T. (2003). Foundations of risk analysis. New York, NY: Wiley.
Beaudoin, S. P., & Boudouris, B. (2016). R2-A.1: Improved swab design for contact sensing (Project Report). Awareness and Localization of Explosives-Related Threats (ALERT), Purdue University.
Bedford, T., & Cooke, R. (2001). Probabilistic risk analysis: Foundations and methods. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Bellinger, W. (2018). Decision rules. In S. Farrow (Ed.), Teaching benefit-cost analysis: Tools of the trade (pp. 3-15). Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Boardman, A. E., Greenberg, D. H., Vining, A. R., & Weimer, D. L. (2018). Cost-benefit analysis - Concepts and practice. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Brown, E. (2016). Sex trafficking arrests are on the rise, but conviction numbers are still small. Retrieved from http://www.purchased.org/news/2016/02/23/general.
Bus Operator Awareness Research & Development (BOARD). (2010). Bus security training deployment strategy plan. DHS S&T Office of University Programs National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (NTSCOE).
Campbell, H. F., & Brown, R. P. C. (2015). Cost-benefit analysis. Abingdon, UK: Routledge.
City of New York. (2018). Staten Island Ferry website. Retrieved from https://www.siferry.com/.
Coast Guard Compass. (2017). Hoax calls. Retrieved from http://coastguard.dodlive.mil/2017/07/research-development-test-evaluation-spotlight-search-and-rescue-hoax-calls.
Crawford, C. L., & Hill, H. H. Jr. (2013). Evaluation of false positive responses by mass spectrometry and ion mobility spectrometry for the detection of trace explosives in complex samples. Analytica Chimica Acta, 795, 36-43.
Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE). (2018). Center of Excellence landscape study - Phase I (Final Report). Los Angeles, CA: CREATE, University of Southern California.
Edwards, W., Miles, R., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2004). Advances in decision analysis. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Eiceman, G. A., & Stone, J. A. (2004). Ion mobility spectrometers in national defense. Analytical Chemistry, 76, 390a-397a.
Farrow, S. (2007). The economics of homeland security expenditures: Foundational expected cost-effectiveness approaches. Contemporary Economic Policy, 25, 14-26.
Farrow, S. (2017). Risk informed benefit-cost analysis. In A. Abbas, M. Tambe, & D. von Winterfeldt (Eds.), Improving homeland security decisions (pp. 238-258). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Hammitt, J., & Robinson, L. (2011). The income elasticity of the value per statistical life: Transferring estimates between high and low income populations. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2(1), 1-29.
Hirshleifer, J. (1978). The private and social value of information and the reward to inventive activity. The American Economic Review, 61(4), 561-574.
Howard, R., & Abbas, A. (2014). Foundations of decision analysis. Boston, MA: Pearson.
Jain, M., Tsai, J., Pita, J., Kiekintveld, C., Ordonez, F., & Tambe, M. (2012). Software assistants for randomized patrol planning for the LAX airport police and the Federal Air Marshalls service. Interfaces: Operations Research Management Science, 52(1), 133-140.
Keeney, R. L., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2011). A value model to evaluate homeland security decisions. Risk Analysis, 31(9), 1470-1481.
Knabb, R. D., Rhome, J. R., & Brown, D. P. (2005). Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Katrina. Retrieved from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf.
Kozub, C., & Jenkins, B. (2012). Bus operator awareness research and development training program. Retrieved from https://transweb.sjsu.edu/research/Bus-Operator-Awareness-Research-and-Development-Training-Program.
Luettich, R. (2018). Non-DHS investment in ADCIRC development, applications and supporting technology (Technical Note). Chapel Hill, NC: Coastal Resilience Center, University of North Carolina.
Luettich, R., Westerink, J., & Scheffner, N. W. (1992). ADCIRC: An advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts, and estuaries (Technical Report DRP-92-6). Washington, D.C.: Department of the Army, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Middleton, M. (2006). Decision analysis using Microsoft Excel. Retrieved from https://www.pdfdrive.com/decision-analysis-using-microsoft-excel-d33613276.html.
Moore, M., Boardman, A., & Vining, A. (2013). The choice of the social discount rate and the opportunity cost of public funds. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 4(3), 401-409. https://doi.org/10.1515/jbca-2012-0008
Paruchuri, P., Pearce, J. P., Marecki, J., Tambe, M., Ordonez, F., & Kraus, S. (2008). Efficient algorithms to solve Bayesian Stackelberg games for security applications. Proceedings of the Conference for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, USA, 1559-1562.
Pielke, R. A., Jr., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., & Musulin, R. (2008). Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1900-2005. Natural Hazards Review, 9(1), 29-42.
Pielke, Jr., R. A., & Landsea, C. W. (1998). Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925-1995. Weather and Forecasting, 13, 621-631.
Purdue Today. (2013). Coast guard accredits system. Retrieved from https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2013/Q2/u.s.-coast-guard-accredits-analytical-system-developed-at-purdue.html.
Raiffa, H. (1968). Decision analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Regneir, E. (2008). Public evacuation decisions and hurricane track uncertainty. Management Science, 54(1), 16-28. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0764
Rose, A. (2015). Macroeconomic consequences of terrorist attacks: Estimation for the analysis of policies and rules. In C. Mansfield & V. K. Smith (Eds.), Benefit transfer for the analysis of DHS policies and rules (pp. 172-200). Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Rose, A., Prager, F., Chen, Z., Chatterjee, S., Wei, D., Heatwole, N., & Warren, E. (2017). The economic consequence of disasters: The E-CAT software tool. Singapore, Singapore: Springer.
Ryba, J., Ogrodniczak, M., & Ryba, B. (2016). Possibilities of the spatial information system usage by the Internal Security Agency. World Scientific News, 57, 122-128.
SensIt-153-Guide (2017). Sensitivity analysis using SensIt. Retrieved from https://treeplan.com/download/.
Shieh, E., An, B., Yang, R., Tambe, M., Baldwin, C., DiRenzo, J., … Meyer, G. (2015). PROTECT: An application of computable game theory for the security of the ports of the United States. Los Angeles, CA: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California.
SimVoi-308-Guide (2017). Monte Carlo simulation using SimVoi. Retrieved from https://treeplan.com/download/.
TerraGo. (2018). TerraGo GeoXRay. Retrieved from http://www.terragotech.com/products/terrago-geoxray
The Staten Island Ferry. (2018a). Staten Island Ferry about. Retrieved from https://www.siferry.com/ferry-about.html.
The Staten Island Ferry. (2018b). Staten Island Ferry current ferries. Retrieved from https://www.siferry.com/currentvessels.html.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2017). Consumer Price Index calculator (mid-year to mid-year). Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.html.
U.S. Coast Guard. (2015). Search and rescue summary statistics. Washington, DC: Author.
U.S. Coast Guard. (2017). SAR (search and rescue) program information. Retrieved from https://www.uscg.mil/hq/cg5/cg534/SAR_Program_Info.asp
U.S. Council of Economic Advisers. (2017). Discounting for public policy: Theory and recent evidence on the merits of updating the discount rate. Retrieved from https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/201701_cea_discounting_issue_brief.pdf.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2014). Best Practices for the treatment of a statistical life in U.S. Department of Homeland Security regulatory analyses. Retrieved from https://homeport.uscg.mil/Lists/Content/Attachments/540/2014%20VSL%20Memo.
U.S. Department of Transportation. (2018). Revised departmental guidance on valuation of travel time in economic analysis. Retrieved from https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/2015%20Revised%20Value%20of%20Travel%20Time%20Guidance.pdf.
U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). (2017). COAST GUARD: Actions needed to close stations identified as overlapping and unnecessarily duplicative. Retrieved from https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-18-9.
U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). (1992). Guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs. Washington, DC: Author.
U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). (2003). Regulatory analysis. Washington, DC: Author.
U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). (2017). Appendix C: Year 2017 and history of rates. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_a094/a94_appx-c.
Viscusi, W. K. (2009). Valuing risks of death from terrorism and natural disasters. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 38(3), 191-213.
Whitehead, J. C. (2003). One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of hurricane evacuation. Ocean and Coastal Management, 46(11-12), 1069-1083.
von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.