Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe.
Journal
Science advances
ISSN: 2375-2548
Titre abrégé: Sci Adv
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101653440
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 2019
10 2019
Historique:
received:
27
06
2019
accepted:
09
09
2019
entrez:
17
10
2019
pubmed:
17
10
2019
medline:
17
10
2019
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31616796
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
pii: aay5478
pmc: PMC6774726
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
eaay5478Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
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