Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate change.
ecological niche modeling
global warming
meta‐analysis
range size
species distribution
uncertainty
Journal
Ecology and evolution
ISSN: 2045-7758
Titre abrégé: Ecol Evol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101566408
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2019
Oct 2019
Historique:
received:
28
02
2019
revised:
25
07
2019
accepted:
02
08
2019
entrez:
24
10
2019
pubmed:
24
10
2019
medline:
24
10
2019
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred "within species" (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31641461
doi: 10.1002/ece3.5617
pii: ECE35617
pmc: PMC6802043
doi:
Banques de données
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.qv5p3r8']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
11136-11144Informations de copyright
© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
None declared.
Références
PLoS One. 2017 Oct 12;12(10):e0183785
pubmed: 29023503
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Dec;20(12):3593-4
pubmed: 25200514
Nat Commun. 2014 Sep 24;5:5023
pubmed: 25248802
Bioinformatics. 2010 Jun 1;26(11):1463-4
pubmed: 20395285
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Nov 20;115(47):11982-11987
pubmed: 30373825
Ecol Evol. 2019 Aug 29;9(19):11136-11144
pubmed: 31641461
New Phytol. 2007;176(4):742-745
pubmed: 17997759
PLoS Biol. 2004 Jul;2(7):E197
pubmed: 15252445
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Sep 1;634:1214-1221
pubmed: 29710627
Proc Biol Sci. 2017 Nov 29;284(1867):
pubmed: 29167360
Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):37-42
pubmed: 12511946
Ecol Lett. 2014 Nov;17(11):1351-64
pubmed: 25205436
PLoS One. 2013 Aug 12;8(8):e72283
pubmed: 23951302
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 15;651(Pt 1):725-735
pubmed: 30245428
Am Nat. 2009 Sep;174(3):369-81
pubmed: 19637963
Science. 2017 Mar 31;355(6332):
pubmed: 28360268
Proc Biol Sci. 2000 Oct 7;267(1456):1947-52
pubmed: 11075706
Nature. 2012 Nov 15;491(7424):444-8
pubmed: 23123857
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Jan 31;103(5):1342-6
pubmed: 16428292
Ecology. 2009 Mar;90(3):588-97
pubmed: 19341131
Nature. 2002 Mar 28;416(6879):389-95
pubmed: 11919621
Conserv Biol. 2010 Feb;24(1):38-50
pubmed: 20121840
Trends Ecol Evol. 2007 Jan;22(1):42-7
pubmed: 17011070
Nat Commun. 2017 May 05;8:15399
pubmed: 28474676
Nat Commun. 2019 Mar 29;10(1):1446
pubmed: 30926936
Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Nov 22;277(1699):3401-10
pubmed: 20534610
Nature. 2011 Feb 24;470(7335):531-4
pubmed: 21326204
Glob Chang Biol. 2017 Oct;23(10):4094-4105
pubmed: 28449200
PLoS Biol. 2007 Jun;5(6):e157
pubmed: 17550306
Bioinformatics. 2004 Jan 22;20(2):289-90
pubmed: 14734327
Res Synth Methods. 2017 Mar;8(1):5-18
pubmed: 28058794