Measuring Recreation Benefit Loss under Climate Change with Revealed and Stated Behavior Data: The Case of Lac Saint-Pierre World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada).

Based on a case study carried out on the Lac Saint-Pierre (LSP) World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada), this paper estimates ecosystem service loss, more precisely the loss related to cultural and recreational activities of the LSP due to the fall of its water level under the pressure of climate change. We measure two dimensions of this loss. As a first step, the extrapolation of our representative survey reports $100 million annual loss in terms of recreation revenue due to the trip reduction to LSP, which is about 60% of current level. Subsequently, the travel-cost data and the contingent behavior data are combined in a revealed and stated behavior panel random-effect estimation, which reports an additional loss measured by consumer surplus that visitors can obtain from their trips up to $232 million, signifying 42% of reduction in their current value.