Trends and Rapidity of Dose Tapering Among Patients Prescribed Long-term Opioid Therapy, 2008-2017.

A 2016 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention prescribing guideline cautioned against higher-dose long-term opioid therapy and recommended tapering daily opioid doses by approximately 10% per week if the risks outweigh the benefits. Warnings have since appeared regarding potential hazards of rapid opioid tapering. To characterize US trends in opioid dose tapering among patients prescribed long-term opioids from 2008 to 2017 and identify patient-level variables associated with tapering and a more rapid rate of tapering. This retrospective cohort study used deidentified medical and pharmacy claims and enrollment records for 100 031 commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage enrollees, representing a diverse mixture of ages, races/ethnicities, and geographical regions across the United States. Adults with stable, higher-dosage (mean, ≥50 morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]/d) opioid prescriptions for a 12-month baseline period and 2 or more months of follow-up from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017, were included in the study. Tapering was defined as 15% or more relative reduction in mean daily MME during any of 6 overlapping 60-day windows within a 7-month follow-up period. The rate of tapering was computed as the maximum monthly percentage dose reduction. Among the 100 031 participants (53 452 [53.4%] women; mean [SD] age, 57.6 [11.8] years), from 2008 to 2015, the age- and sex-standardized percentage of patients tapering daily opioid doses increased from 10.5% to 13.7% (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] per year, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.05-1.06]) before increasing to 16.2% in 2016 and 22.4% in 2017 (aIRR in 2016-2017 vs 2008-2015, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.16-1.25]). Patient-level covariates associated with tapering included female sex (aIRR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.10-1.15]) and higher baseline dose (aIRR for ≥300 MMEs/d vs 50-89 MMEs/d, 2.57 [95% CI, 2.48-2.65]). Among patients tapering daily opioid doses, the mean (SD) maximum dose reduction was 27.6% (17.0%) per month, and 18.8% of patients had a maximum tapering rate exceeding 40% per month (ie, faster than 10% per week). More rapid dose reduction was associated with 2016-2017 vs 2008-2015 (adjusted difference, 1.4% [95% CI, 0.8%-2.1%]) and higher baseline dose (adjusted difference, 2.7% [95% CI, 2.2%-3.3%] for 90-149 vs 50-89 MMEs/d). Patients using long-term opioid therapy are increasingly undergoing dose tapering, particularly women and those prescribed higher doses; in addition, dose tapering has become more common since 2016. Many patients undergoing tapering reduce daily doses at a rapid maximum rate.