To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
Adaptation
Agricultural modelling
Climate change
Research challenges
Journal
Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news
ISSN: 1364-8152
Titre abrégé: Environ Model Softw
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9891021
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2019
Oct 2019
Historique:
entrez:
3
12
2019
pubmed:
4
12
2019
medline:
4
12
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31787839
doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492
pii: S1364-8152(18)31058-2
pii: 104492
pmc: PMC6876672
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
104492Informations de copyright
© 2019 The Authors.
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