Projections of care for older people with dementia in England: 2015 to 2040.
costs
dementia
projections
services
Journal
Age and ageing
ISSN: 1468-2834
Titre abrégé: Age Ageing
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0375655
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
27 02 2020
27 02 2020
Historique:
received:
23
07
2019
revised:
09
09
2019
accepted:
07
10
2019
pubmed:
7
12
2019
medline:
5
2
2021
entrez:
7
12
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing. This study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England. The study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulation model, Office for National Statistics population projections and data from the MODEM cohort study. A simulation model was built to make the projections. We project that the number of older people with dementia will more than double in the next 25 years. The number receiving unpaid or formal care is projected to rise by 124%, from 530,000 in 2015 to 1,183,000 in 2040. Total cost of dementia is projected to increase from £23.0 billion in 2015 to £80.1 billion in 2040, and average cost is projected to increase from £35,100 per person per year in 2015 to £58,900 per person per year in 2040. Total and average costs of social care are projected to increase much faster than those of healthcare and unpaid care. The numbers of people with dementia and associated costs of care will rise substantially in the coming decades, unless new treatments enable the progression of the condition to be prevented or slowed. Care and support for people with dementia and their family carers will need to be increased.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
The number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing.
OBJECTIVE
This study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England.
METHODS
The study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulation model, Office for National Statistics population projections and data from the MODEM cohort study. A simulation model was built to make the projections.
RESULTS
We project that the number of older people with dementia will more than double in the next 25 years. The number receiving unpaid or formal care is projected to rise by 124%, from 530,000 in 2015 to 1,183,000 in 2040. Total cost of dementia is projected to increase from £23.0 billion in 2015 to £80.1 billion in 2040, and average cost is projected to increase from £35,100 per person per year in 2015 to £58,900 per person per year in 2040. Total and average costs of social care are projected to increase much faster than those of healthcare and unpaid care.
CONCLUSION
The numbers of people with dementia and associated costs of care will rise substantially in the coming decades, unless new treatments enable the progression of the condition to be prevented or slowed. Care and support for people with dementia and their family carers will need to be increased.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31808792
pii: 5661652
doi: 10.1093/ageing/afz154
pmc: PMC7047814
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
264-269Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.
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