Cost-effectiveness of two different protocols for animal tracing investigations of bovine tuberculosis outbreaks in France.

In the French bovine tuberculosis (bTB) surveillance program, tracing-on and back investigations have a major importance as, in 2016, they represented about 21 % of the detected outbreaks. Building on our previous work on the other surveillance system components (Poirier et al., 2019), we evaluated for the first time the sensitivity and the cost of the two existing protocols of bTB's tracing-on investigations trough scenario tree modelling with a stochastic approach. We used French databases (national database for bovine identification and database recording all bTB surveillance and control results) and direct and indirect costs collected in a previous study. These assessments allowed us to calculate the cost-effectiveness index (cost/sensitivity) of each tracing-on protocol. In the first protocol (trace-and-cull protocol), the animal(s) linking the farm to an outbreak are systematically culled for bacteriology, PCR and histology testing. In the second protocol (trace-and-test protocol), the traced animal is culled only if it had non-negative result to an intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin test (ICCT). We estimated herd sensitivity of the two tracing-on protocols for 12 herd types defined by their production type, size and herd turnover. For the trace-and-cull protocol, mean herd sensitivity was estimated between 67.3 % [66.8-67.7]

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