Fine-scale family structure shapes influenza transmission risk in households: Insights from primary schools in Matsumoto city, 2014/15.
Adult
Child
Cities
Computational Biology
Disease Susceptibility
/ epidemiology
Family Characteristics
Female
Humans
Influenza, Human
/ epidemiology
Japan
/ epidemiology
Male
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Risk Factors
Schools
Seasons
Students
/ statistics & numerical data
Surveys and Questionnaires
Journal
PLoS computational biology
ISSN: 1553-7358
Titre abrégé: PLoS Comput Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101238922
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2019
12 2019
Historique:
received:
10
07
2019
accepted:
08
12
2019
revised:
14
01
2020
pubmed:
27
12
2019
medline:
17
3
2020
entrez:
27
12
2019
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Households are important settings for the transmission of seasonal influenza. Previous studies found that the per-person risk of within-household transmission decreases with household size. However, more detailed heterogeneities driven by household composition and contact patterns have not been studied. We employed a mathematical model that accounts for infections both from outside and within the household. The model was applied to citywide primary school seasonal influenza surveillance and household surveys from 10,486 students during the 2014/15 season in Matsumoto city, Japan. We compared a range of models to estimate the structure of household transmission and found that familial relationship and household composition strongly influenced the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in households. Children had a substantially high risk of infection from outside the household (up to 20%) compared with adults (1-3%). Intense transmission was observed within-generation (between children/parents/grandparents) and also between mother and child, with transmission risks typically ranging from 5-20% depending on the transmission route and household composition. Children were identified as the largest source of secondary transmission, with family structure influencing infection risk.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31877122
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007589
pii: PCOMPBIOL-D-19-01156
pmc: PMC6959609
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e1007589Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 210758/Z/18/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 206250/Z/17/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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