Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak.
Journal
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
ISSN: 1935-2735
Titre abrégé: PLoS Negl Trop Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101291488
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2019
12 2019
Historique:
received:
24
07
2019
accepted:
08
12
2019
revised:
08
01
2020
pubmed:
27
12
2019
medline:
26
2
2020
entrez:
27
12
2019
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The 2015-2017 epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas caused widespread infection, followed by protective immunity. The timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak remains unclear. We used an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of age-specific immunity to ZIKV, and predict the future age-specific risk using data from Managua, Nicaragua. We also investigated the potential impact of a ZIKV vaccine. Assuming lifelong immunity, the risk of a ZIKV outbreak will remain low until 2035 and rise above 50% in 2047. The imbalance in age-specific immunity implies that people in the 15-29 age range will be at highest risk of infection during the next ZIKV outbreak, increasing the expected number of congenital abnormalities. ZIKV vaccine development and licensure are urgent to attain the maximum benefit in reducing the population-level risk of infection and the risk of adverse congenital outcomes. This urgency increases if immunity is not lifelong.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31877200
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978
pii: PNTD-D-19-01236
pmc: PMC6948816
doi:
Substances chimiques
Viral Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0007978Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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