Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal.
Bayesian population model
carry-over effects
demography
factor-analytic models
seasonal structured population models
viability
Journal
Ecology letters
ISSN: 1461-0248
Titre abrégé: Ecol Lett
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101121949
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2020
Apr 2020
Historique:
received:
20
12
2019
accepted:
24
12
2019
pubmed:
24
1
2020
medline:
7
3
2020
entrez:
24
1
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.
Types de publication
Letter
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
588-597Subventions
Organisme : Directorate for Biological Sciences
ID : IDBR-0754247
Organisme : H2020 European Research Council
ID : 33785
Organisme : National Geographic Society Education Foundation
ID : 8140-06
Organisme : Division of Biological Infrastructure
ID : 1226713
Organisme : Division of Biological Infrastructure
ID : DBI 0242960
Organisme : Division of Biological Infrastructure
ID : DBI 0731346
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : 31003A_182286
Organisme : JUAN DE LA CIERVA FORMACION
ID : FJCI-2017-32893
Organisme : Division of Environmental Biology
ID : DEB-1119660
Organisme : Division of Environmental Biology
ID : DEB-1557130
Organisme : Swiss National Science Foundation
Pays : Switzerland
Organisme : Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
Organisme : National Geographic Society
ID : 8140-06
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : 1557130
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : 1226713
Informations de copyright
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
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