Trachoma Prevalence After Discontinuation of Mass Azithromycin Distribution.


Journal

The Journal of infectious diseases
ISSN: 1537-6613
Titre abrégé: J Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0413675

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
11 06 2020
Historique:
pubmed: 14 2 2020
medline: 17 2 2021
entrez: 14 2 2020
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1-9 prevalence at the district level. We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF1-9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF1-9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF1-9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey. Of the 220 districts included, TF1-9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF1-9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF1-9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF1-9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA. An increase in TF1-9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF1-9 as a public health problem.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND
As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1-9 prevalence at the district level.
METHODS
We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF1-9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF1-9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF1-9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey.
RESULTS
Of the 220 districts included, TF1-9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF1-9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF1-9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF1-9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA.
CONCLUSION
An increase in TF1-9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF1-9 as a public health problem.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32052842
pii: 5735336
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz691
pmc: PMC7289551
doi:

Substances chimiques

Anti-Bacterial Agents 0
Azithromycin 83905-01-5

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

S519-S524

Subventions

Organisme : NIMH NIH HHS
ID : R25 MH083620
Pays : United States
Organisme : NEI NIH HHS
ID : L40 EY028421
Pays : United States

Commentaires et corrections

Type : ErratumIn

Informations de copyright

© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

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Auteurs

William Godwin (W)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

Joaquin M Prada (JM)

Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom.

Paul Emerson (P)

International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA.

P J Hooper (PJ)

International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA.

Ana Bakhtiari (A)

International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA.

Michael Deiner (M)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

Travis C Porco (TC)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

Hamidah Mahmud (H)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

Emma Landskroner (E)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

T Déirdre Hollingsworth (TD)

Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Graham F Medley (GF)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Amy Pinsent (A)

Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Robin Bailey (R)

Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Thomas M Lietman (TM)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

Catherine E Oldenburg (CE)

Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.

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Classifications MeSH