Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study.
C-statistics
LUMPO3
calibration
discrimination
external centers.
eye cancer
prognostic model
survival probabilities
uveal melanoma
Journal
Cancers
ISSN: 2072-6694
Titre abrégé: Cancers (Basel)
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101526829
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
18 Feb 2020
18 Feb 2020
Historique:
received:
07
12
2019
revised:
22
01
2020
accepted:
13
02
2020
entrez:
23
2
2020
pubmed:
23
2
2020
medline:
23
2
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3's performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3's ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32085617
pii: cancers12020477
doi: 10.3390/cancers12020477
pmc: PMC7072188
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
No conflicting relationship exists for any of the authors.
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