Prediction of Adverse Outcomes in Pediatric Acute Hematogenous Osteomyelitis.
child
complication
hematogenous osteomyelitis
predict
score
Journal
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
ISSN: 1537-6591
Titre abrégé: Clin Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9203213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 12 2020
03 12 2020
Historique:
received:
07
11
2019
accepted:
28
02
2020
pubmed:
5
3
2020
medline:
28
4
2021
entrez:
5
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Clinicians cannot reliably predict complications of acute hematogenous osteomyelitis (AHO). Consecutive cases of AHO from 2 pediatric centers in the United States were analyzed retrospectively to develop clinical tools from data obtained within 96 hours of hospitalization to predict acute and chronic complications of AHO. Two novel composite prediction scores derived from multivariable logistic regression modeling were compared with a previously published severity of illness (SOI) score, C-reactive protein (CRP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. The causative organisms were identified in 73% of 261 cases. Bacteremia (45%), abscesses (38%), and associated suppurative arthritis (23%) were relatively common. Acute or chronic complications occurred in 24% and 11% of patients, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression identified bone abscess (odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.0-5.2]), fever > 48 hours (OR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.2-6.0]), suppurative arthritis (OR, 3.2 [95% CI, 1.3-7.5]), disseminated disease (OR, 4.6 [95% CI, 1.5-14.3]), and delayed source control (OR, 5.1 [95% CI, 1.4-19.0]) as strong predictors of acute complications. In a separate model, CRP ≥ 100 mg/L at 2-4 days after antibiotics (OR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.0-7.3]), disseminated disease (OR, 3.3 [95% CI, 1.1-10.0]), and requirement for bone debridement (OR, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.1-21.0]) strongly predicted chronic morbidity. These variables were combined to create weighted composite prediction scores for acute (A-SCORE) and chronic (C-SCORE) osteomyelitis, which were superior to SOI, CRP, and ESR and had negative predictive values > 90%. Two novel composite clinical scores were superior to existing tools to predict complications of pediatric AHO.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Clinicians cannot reliably predict complications of acute hematogenous osteomyelitis (AHO).
METHODS
Consecutive cases of AHO from 2 pediatric centers in the United States were analyzed retrospectively to develop clinical tools from data obtained within 96 hours of hospitalization to predict acute and chronic complications of AHO. Two novel composite prediction scores derived from multivariable logistic regression modeling were compared with a previously published severity of illness (SOI) score, C-reactive protein (CRP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses.
RESULTS
The causative organisms were identified in 73% of 261 cases. Bacteremia (45%), abscesses (38%), and associated suppurative arthritis (23%) were relatively common. Acute or chronic complications occurred in 24% and 11% of patients, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression identified bone abscess (odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.0-5.2]), fever > 48 hours (OR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.2-6.0]), suppurative arthritis (OR, 3.2 [95% CI, 1.3-7.5]), disseminated disease (OR, 4.6 [95% CI, 1.5-14.3]), and delayed source control (OR, 5.1 [95% CI, 1.4-19.0]) as strong predictors of acute complications. In a separate model, CRP ≥ 100 mg/L at 2-4 days after antibiotics (OR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.0-7.3]), disseminated disease (OR, 3.3 [95% CI, 1.1-10.0]), and requirement for bone debridement (OR, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.1-21.0]) strongly predicted chronic morbidity. These variables were combined to create weighted composite prediction scores for acute (A-SCORE) and chronic (C-SCORE) osteomyelitis, which were superior to SOI, CRP, and ESR and had negative predictive values > 90%.
CONCLUSIONS
Two novel composite clinical scores were superior to existing tools to predict complications of pediatric AHO.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32129457
pii: 5780104
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa211
pmc: PMC7904074
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e454-e464Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R25 AI140490
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : ErratumIn
Type : ErratumIn
Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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