The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
China
/ epidemiology
Communicable Diseases, Imported
/ epidemiology
Computer Simulation
Coronavirus Infections
/ epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Incidence
Internationality
Models, Statistical
Pandemics
/ prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral
/ epidemiology
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Travel
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
24 04 2020
24 04 2020
Historique:
received:
20
01
2020
revised:
07
02
2020
accepted:
05
03
2020
pubmed:
8
3
2020
medline:
2
5
2020
entrez:
8
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32144116
pii: science.aba9757
doi: 10.1126/science.aba9757
pmc: PMC7164386
mid: NIHMS1577321
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
395-400Subventions
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U54 GM111274
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateOf
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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