STone Episode Prediction: Development and validation of the prediction nomogram for urolithiasis.
kidney
nomogram
prediction
urinary stone
urolithiasis
Journal
International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association
ISSN: 1442-2042
Titre abrégé: Int J Urol
Pays: Australia
ID NLM: 9440237
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2020
Apr 2020
Historique:
received:
28
08
2019
accepted:
26
01
2020
pubmed:
10
3
2020
medline:
28
4
2021
entrez:
10
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To develop and validate a nomogram predicting the occurrence of a stone episode, given the lack of such predicting risk tools for urolithiasis. We retrospectively analyzed 1305 patients with urolithiasis and 2800 community-dwelling individuals who underwent a comprehensive health survey. The STone Episode Prediction nomogram was created based on data from the medical records of 600 patients with urolithiasis and 1300 controls, and was validated using a different population of 705 patients with urolithiasis and 1500 controls. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a model to predict the potential candidate for a stone episode. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using the results of the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (area under the curve). Age, sex, diabetes mellitus, renal function, serum albumin, and serum uric acid were found to be significantly associated with urolithiasis in the training set and were included in the STone Episode Prediction nomogram. The optimal cut-off value for the probability of a stone episode using the nomogram was >28% with a sensitivity of 79%, a specificity of 76%, and area under the curve of 0.860. In the validation test, area under the curve for the detection of urolithiasis was 0.815 with a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 63%. Herein, we developed and validated the STone Episode Prediction nomogram that can predict a potential candidate for an episode of urolithiasis. This nomogram might be beneficial for the first step in stone screening in individuals with lifestyle-related diseases.
Substances chimiques
Uric Acid
268B43MJ25
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
344-349Subventions
Organisme : Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI
ID : 15H02563
Organisme : Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI
ID : 17K11119
Organisme : Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI
ID : 19H05556
Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Japanese Urological Association.
Références
Sakamoto S, Miyazawa K, Yasui T et al. Chronological changes in the epidemiological characteristics of upper urinary tract urolithiasis in Japan. Int. J. Urol. 2018; 25: 373-8.
Unno R, Taguchi K, Okada A et al. Potassium-sodium citrate prevents the development of renal microcalculi into symptomatic stones in calcium stone-forming patients. Int. J. Urol. 2017; 24: 75-81.
Li JK, Teoh JY, Ng CF. Updates in endourological management of urolithiasis. Int. J. Urol. 2019; 26: 172-83.
Taguchi K, Cho SY, Ng AC et al. The Urological Association of Asia clinical guideline for urinary stone disease. Int. J. Urol. 2019; 26: 688-709.
Eisner BH, Goldfarb DS. A nomogram for the prediction of kidney stone recurrence. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 2014; 25: 2685-7.
Rule AD, Lieske JC, Li X, Melton LJ 3rd, Krambeck AE, Bergstralh EJ. The ROKS nomogram for predicting a second symptomatic stone episode. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 2014; 25: 2878-86.
Hu M, Zhong X, Cui X et al. Development and validation of a risk-prediction nomogram for patients with ureteral calculi associated with urosepsis: a retrospective analysis. PLoS One 2018; 13: e0201515.
Imamura Y, Kawamura K, Sazuka T et al. Development of a nomogram for predicting the stone-free rate after transurethral ureterolithotripsy using semi-rigid ureteroscope. Int. J. Urol. 2013; 20: 616-21.
Ito H, Sakamaki K, Kawahara T et al. Development and internal validation of a nomogram for predicting stone-free status after flexible ureteroscopy for renal stones. BJU Int. 2015; 115: 446-51.
Oikawa M, Hatakeyama S, Yoneyma T et al. Significance of serum N-glycan profiling as a diagnostic biomarker in urothelial carcinoma. Eur. Urol. Focus 2018; 4: 405-11.
Tanaka T, Hatakeyama S, Yamamoto H et al. Clinical relevance of aortic calcification in urolithiasis patients. BMC Urol. 2017; 17: 25.
Tanaka Y, Hatakeyama S, Tanaka T et al. The influence of serum uric acid on renal function in patients with calcium or uric acid stone: a population-based analysis. PLoS One 2017; 12: e0182136.
Kido K, Hatakeyama S, Imai A et al. Sleep disturbance has a higher impact on general and mental quality of life reduction than nocturia: Results from the Community Health Survey in Japan. Eur. Urol. Focus 2019; 5: 1120-6.
Matsumoto T, Hatakeyama S, Imai A et al. Relationship between oxidative stress and lower urinary tract symptoms: results from a community health survey in Japan. BJU Int. 2019; 123: 877-84.
Soma O, Hatakeyama S, Imai A et al. Relationship between frailty and lower urinary tract symptoms among community-dwelling adults. Low. Urin. Tract Symptoms 2019; https://doi.org/10.1111/luts.12292.
Soma O, Hatakeyama S, Okamoto T et al. Multicenter prospective study validating the efficacy of a quantitative assessment tool for frailty in patients with urological cancers. Med. Oncol. 2019; 36: 88.
Fukushi K, Narita T, Hatakeyama S et al. Difference in toxicity reporting between patients and clinicians during systemic chemotherapy in patients with urothelial carcinoma. Int. J. Urol. 2017; 24: 361-6.
Fukushi K, Hatakeyama S, Yamamoto H et al. Aortic calcification burden predicts deterioration of renal function after radical nephrectomy. BMC Urol. 2017; 17: 13.
Hosogoe S, Hatakeyama S, Kusaka A et al. Platinum-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves oncological outcomes in patients with locally advanced upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Eur. Urol. Focus 2017; 231-40.
Iasonos A, Schrag D, Raj GV, Panageas KS. How to build and interpret a nomogram for cancer prognosis. J. Clin. Oncol. 2008; 26: 1364-70.
Gareth J, Daniela W, Trevor H, Robert T. An Introduction to Statistical Learning. Springer Publishing Company, New York, 2013. Incorporated.
Ahmadi F, Etemadi SM, Lessan-Pezeshki M et al. Contribution of stone size to chronic kidney disease in kidney stone formers. Int. J. Urol. 2015; 22: 104-8.
Yamashita S, Iguchi T, Nishizawa S, Iba A, Kohjimoto Y, Hara I. Recurrent stone-forming patients have high visceral fat ratio based on computed tomography images compared to first-time stone-forming patients. Int. J. Urol. 2018; 25: 569-73.
Liu Y, Li S, Zeng Z et al. Kidney stones and cardiovascular risk: a meta-analysis of cohort studies. Am. J. Kidney Dis. 2014; 64: 402-10.
Besiroglu H, Ozbek E. Association between blood lipid profile and urolithiasis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. Int. J. Urol. 2019; 26: 7-17.
Iseki K, Ikemiya Y, Inoue T, Iseki C, Kinjo K, Takishita S. Significance of hyperuricemia as a risk factor for developing ESRD in a screened cohort. Am. J. Kidney Dis. 2004; 44: 642-50.
Rule AD, Krambeck AE, Lieske JC. Chronic kidney disease in kidney stone formers. Clin. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 2011; 6: 2069-75.
Oda E. Overweight and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein are weakly associated with kidney stone formation in Japanese men. Int. J. Urol. 2014; 21: 1005-11.
Alexander RT, Hemmelgarn BR, Wiebe N et al. Kidney stones and cardiovascular events: a cohort study. Clin. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 2014; 9: 506-12.
Iso H. Lifestyle and cardiovascular disease in Japan. J. Atheroscler. Thromb. 2011; 18: 83-8.