The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application.
Journal
Annals of internal medicine
ISSN: 1539-3704
Titre abrégé: Ann Intern Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0372351
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 May 2020
05 May 2020
Historique:
pubmed:
10
3
2020
medline:
14
5
2020
entrez:
10
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. To estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications. Pooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020. News reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China. Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization. There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases. This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities.
OBJECTIVE
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications.
DESIGN
METHODS
Pooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020.
SETTING
METHODS
News reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China.
PARTICIPANTS
METHODS
Persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China.
MEASUREMENTS
METHODS
Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization.
RESULTS
RESULTS
There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.
LIMITATION
CONCLUSIONS
Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE
BACKGROUND
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32150748
pii: 2762808
doi: 10.7326/M20-0504
pmc: PMC7081172
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
577-582Subventions
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : R35 GM119582
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
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