Validation of risk assessment models predicting venous thromboembolism in acutely ill medical inpatients: A cohort study.
deep vein thrombosis
inpatients
pulmonary embolism
risk assessment model
venous thromboembolism
Journal
Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis : JTH
ISSN: 1538-7836
Titre abrégé: J Thromb Haemost
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101170508
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2020
06 2020
Historique:
received:
19
06
2019
revised:
06
03
2020
accepted:
09
03
2020
pubmed:
14
3
2020
medline:
15
5
2021
entrez:
14
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Because hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (VTE) represents a frequent cause of preventable deaths in medical inpatients, identifying at-risk patients requiring thromboprophylaxis is critical. We aimed to externally assess the Caprini, IMPROVE, and Padua VTE risk scores and to compare their performance to advanced age as a stand-alone predictor. We performed a retrospective analysis of patients prospectively enrolled in the PREVENU trial. Patients aged 40 years and older, hospitalized for at least 2 days on a medical ward were consecutively enrolled and followed for 3 months. Critical ill patients were not recruited. Patients diagnosed with VTE within 48 hours from admission, or receiving full dose anticoagulant treatment or who underwent surgery were excluded. All suspected VTE and deaths occurring during the 3-month follow-up were adjudicated by an independent committee. The three scores were retrospectively assessed. Body mass index, needed for the Padua and Caprini scores, was missing in 44% of patients. Among 14 910 eligible patients, 14 660 were evaluable, of which 1.8% experienced symptomatic VTE or sudden unexplained death during the 3-month follow-up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.63), 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.66) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.61-0.67) for Caprini, IMPROVE, and Padua scores, respectively. None of these scores performed significantly better than advanced age as a single predictor (AUC 0.61, 95% CI 0.58-0.64). In our study, Caprini, IMPROVE, and Padua VTE risk scores have poor discriminative ability to identify not critically ill medical inpatients at risk of VTE, and do not perform better than a risk evaluation based on patient's age alone.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Because hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (VTE) represents a frequent cause of preventable deaths in medical inpatients, identifying at-risk patients requiring thromboprophylaxis is critical. We aimed to externally assess the Caprini, IMPROVE, and Padua VTE risk scores and to compare their performance to advanced age as a stand-alone predictor.
METHODS
We performed a retrospective analysis of patients prospectively enrolled in the PREVENU trial. Patients aged 40 years and older, hospitalized for at least 2 days on a medical ward were consecutively enrolled and followed for 3 months. Critical ill patients were not recruited. Patients diagnosed with VTE within 48 hours from admission, or receiving full dose anticoagulant treatment or who underwent surgery were excluded. All suspected VTE and deaths occurring during the 3-month follow-up were adjudicated by an independent committee. The three scores were retrospectively assessed. Body mass index, needed for the Padua and Caprini scores, was missing in 44% of patients.
RESULTS
Among 14 910 eligible patients, 14 660 were evaluable, of which 1.8% experienced symptomatic VTE or sudden unexplained death during the 3-month follow-up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.63), 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.66) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.61-0.67) for Caprini, IMPROVE, and Padua scores, respectively. None of these scores performed significantly better than advanced age as a single predictor (AUC 0.61, 95% CI 0.58-0.64).
CONCLUSION
In our study, Caprini, IMPROVE, and Padua VTE risk scores have poor discriminative ability to identify not critically ill medical inpatients at risk of VTE, and do not perform better than a risk evaluation based on patient's age alone.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32168402
doi: 10.1111/jth.14796
pii: S1538-7836(22)01431-3
doi:
Substances chimiques
Anticoagulants
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1398-1407Subventions
Organisme : The Canadian Institutes of Health Research
ID : CDT-142654
Pays : International
Informations de copyright
© 2020 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.
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