A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.
Journal
PLoS computational biology
ISSN: 1553-7358
Titre abrégé: PLoS Comput Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101238922
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2020
03 2020
Historique:
received:
17
07
2019
accepted:
16
01
2020
revised:
08
04
2020
pubmed:
29
3
2020
medline:
1
7
2020
entrez:
29
3
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32218567
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687
pii: PCOMPBIOL-D-19-01185
pmc: PMC7141699
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e1007687Subventions
Organisme : Department of Health
Pays : United Kingdom
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Références
Lancet Infect Dis. 2013 Feb;13(2):137-46
pubmed: 23158499
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2008 May;12(5):480-92
pubmed: 18419882
J Clin Microbiol. 2001 Mar;39(3):855-61
pubmed: 11230395
J Infect Dis. 1999 Sep;180(3):726-36
pubmed: 10438361
BMC Med. 2017 Jun 13;15(1):105
pubmed: 28606177
Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Sep;146(12):1478-1494
pubmed: 29970199
J R Soc Interface. 2012 Nov 7;9(76):2826-33
pubmed: 22718990
Mol Biol Evol. 2014 Jul;31(7):1869-79
pubmed: 24714079
J Infect Dis. 2011 Jun 1;203(11):1582-9
pubmed: 21592987
J Clin Microbiol. 2016 Jul;54(7):1862-1870
pubmed: 27194683
Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Apr;11(4):597-602
pubmed: 15829200
Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Oct 1;187(10):2233-2242
pubmed: 29878041
Nature. 1996 Jun 13;381(6583):600-2
pubmed: 8637594
Eur Respir J. 2010 Aug;36(2):339-47
pubmed: 19996188
J Clin Microbiol. 2015 Oct;53(10):3264-71
pubmed: 26224845
J R Soc Interface. 2009 Feb 6;6(31):187-202
pubmed: 19205079
BMC Infect Dis. 2019 Feb 13;19(1):154
pubmed: 30760211
Lancet. 2016 Nov 19;388(10059):2510-2518
pubmed: 27742165
Epidemiology. 2013 May;24(3):395-400
pubmed: 23446314
Nature. 2005 Nov 17;438(7066):355-9
pubmed: 16292310
Thorax. 2017 Aug;72(8):736-745
pubmed: 28389598
Am J Epidemiol. 1998 Jan 15;147(2):187-95
pubmed: 9457010
Nature. 2014 Jul 10;511(7508):228-31
pubmed: 25008532
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2012 Mar 19;367(1590):850-9
pubmed: 22312052
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2011 Dec;15(12):1630-7
pubmed: 22118170
Lancet. 2004 Jan 17;363(9404):212-4
pubmed: 14738796
Eur Respir J. 2018 Nov 1;52(5):
pubmed: 30209198
Epidemiol Infect. 1998 Oct;121(2):309-24
pubmed: 9825782
Epidemics. 2018 Dec;25:47-53
pubmed: 29880306
Infect Genet Evol. 2008 Mar;8(2):182-90
pubmed: 18243064
Thorax. 2016 Aug;71(8):749-56
pubmed: 27417280
BMC Infect Dis. 2012 Mar 18;12:60
pubmed: 22423983