Extinction debt in local habitats: quantifying the roles of random drift, immigration and emigration.
biodiversity change
eco-evolutionary dynamics
non-equilibrium ecology
species extinction
stochastic differential equation
Journal
Royal Society open science
ISSN: 2054-5703
Titre abrégé: R Soc Open Sci
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101647528
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jan 2020
Jan 2020
Historique:
received:
15
06
2019
accepted:
28
11
2019
entrez:
29
3
2020
pubmed:
29
3
2020
medline:
29
3
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We developed a time-dependent stochastic neutral model for predicting diverse temporal trajectories of biodiversity change in response to ecological disturbance (i.e. habitat destruction) and dispersal dynamic (i.e. emigration and immigration). The model is general and predicts how transition behaviours of extinction may accumulate according to a different combination of random drift, immigration rate, emigration rate and the degree of habitat destruction. We show that immigration, emigration, the areal size of the destroyed habitat and initial species abundance distribution (SAD) can impact the total biodiversity loss in an intact local area. Among these, the SAD plays the most deterministic role, as it directly determines the initial species richness in the local target area. By contrast, immigration was found to slow down total biodiversity loss and can drive the emergence of species credits (i.e. a gain of species) over time. However, the emigration process would increase the extinction risk of species and accelerate biodiversity loss. Finally but notably, we found that a shift in the emigration rate after a habitat destruction event may be a new mechanism to generate species credits.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32218937
doi: 10.1098/rsos.191039
pii: rsos191039
pmc: PMC7029950
doi:
Banques de données
figshare
['10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4777967']
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.n710qb3']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
191039Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
We declare we have no competing interests.
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