Validation of the Balance of Risk as a Predictor of Liver Transplant Survival in a Spanish Population.
Journal
Transplantation proceedings
ISSN: 1873-2623
Titre abrégé: Transplant Proc
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0243532
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jun 2020
Jun 2020
Historique:
received:
29
01
2020
accepted:
06
02
2020
pubmed:
1
4
2020
medline:
5
11
2020
entrez:
1
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The Balance of Risk (BAR) score is a simple test that combines donor and recipient variables to predict liver transplant success. It has been validated in different publications, with cut-off points of between 15 and 18 points proposed depending on the region. The aim of this study is to test the validity of the BAR score and to find the optimal cut-off point for our population. A retrospective cohort of 164 liver transplant patients was selected between January 2012 and July 2019. All were older than 18 years and were treated in a Spanish tertiary-level hospital. The receiver operating characteristic curve between BAR and 5-year survival yields a result of 0.622 (P = .046), placing the cut-off point at ≥7 (sensitivity 61.5%, specificity 61.6%). Patients with a BAR score <7 and a BAR score ≥7 have an estimated 5-year survival of 53.91 vs 47.51 months, respectively (log rank = .032). The only 2 variables associated with increased survival were a BAR score of <7 (hazard ratio = 2.566; P < .001) and a body mass index <30 (hazard ratio = 6.667; P < .001). A low BAR score correlates well with liver transplant survival at 5 years. The BAR is a simple tool that should be used for donor-recipient matching. Due to the characteristics, resources, and population in our environment, a BAR score of 7 would be the optimum cut-off point for a liver transplant.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The Balance of Risk (BAR) score is a simple test that combines donor and recipient variables to predict liver transplant success. It has been validated in different publications, with cut-off points of between 15 and 18 points proposed depending on the region. The aim of this study is to test the validity of the BAR score and to find the optimal cut-off point for our population.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
METHODS
A retrospective cohort of 164 liver transplant patients was selected between January 2012 and July 2019. All were older than 18 years and were treated in a Spanish tertiary-level hospital.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The receiver operating characteristic curve between BAR and 5-year survival yields a result of 0.622 (P = .046), placing the cut-off point at ≥7 (sensitivity 61.5%, specificity 61.6%). Patients with a BAR score <7 and a BAR score ≥7 have an estimated 5-year survival of 53.91 vs 47.51 months, respectively (log rank = .032). The only 2 variables associated with increased survival were a BAR score of <7 (hazard ratio = 2.566; P < .001) and a body mass index <30 (hazard ratio = 6.667; P < .001).
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
A low BAR score correlates well with liver transplant survival at 5 years. The BAR is a simple tool that should be used for donor-recipient matching. Due to the characteristics, resources, and population in our environment, a BAR score of 7 would be the optimum cut-off point for a liver transplant.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32224014
pii: S0041-1345(20)30253-0
doi: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2020.02.059
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1481-1485Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.