Combining Volumetric and Wall Shear Stress Analysis from CT to Assess Risk of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Progression.

Background Despite known limitations, the decision to operate on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is primarily on the basis of measurement of maximal aneurysm diameter. Purpose To identify volumetric and computational fluid dynamics parameters to predict AAAs that are likely to progress in size. Materials and Methods This study, part of a multicenter prospective registry (NCT01599533), included 126 patients with AAA. Patients were sorted into stable (≤10-mL increase in aneurysm volume) and progression (>10-mL increase in aneurysm volume) groups. Initial AAA characteristics of the derivation cohort were analyzed (maximal diameter and surface, thrombus and lumen volumes, maximal wall pressure, and wall shear stress [WSS]) to identify relevant parameters for a logistic regression model. Model and maximal diameter diagnostic performances were assessed in both cohorts and for AAAs smaller than 50 mm by using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results Eighty-one patients were included (mean age, 73 years ± 7 years [standard deviation]; 78 men). The derivation and validation cohorts included, respectively, 50 and 31 participants. In the derivation cohort, there was higher mean lumen volume and lower mean WSS in the progression group compared with the stable group (60 mL ± 14 vs 46 mL ± 18 [