An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.


Journal

Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
08 05 2020
Historique:
received: 06 03 2020
accepted: 27 03 2020
pubmed: 3 4 2020
medline: 13 5 2020
entrez: 3 4 2020
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

Identifiants

pubmed: 32234804
pii: science.abb6105
doi: 10.1126/science.abb6105
pmc: PMC7164389
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

638-642

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

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Auteurs

Huaiyu Tian (H)

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. tianhuaiyu@gmail.com christopher.dye@zoo.ox.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk grenfell@princeton.edu ruifuyang@gmail.com.

Yonghong Liu (Y)

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Yidan Li (Y)

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Chieh-Hsi Wu (CH)

School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

Bin Chen (B)

Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.

Moritz U G Kraemer (MUG)

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.

Bingying Li (B)

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Jun Cai (J)

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Bo Xu (B)

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Qiqi Yang (Q)

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Ben Wang (B)

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Peng Yang (P)

Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.

Yujun Cui (Y)

State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.

Yimeng Song (Y)

Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

Pai Zheng (P)

Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, China.

Quanyi Wang (Q)

Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.

Ottar N Bjornstad (ON)

Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Department of Entomology, College of Agricultural Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

Ruifu Yang (R)

State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China. tianhuaiyu@gmail.com christopher.dye@zoo.ox.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk grenfell@princeton.edu ruifuyang@gmail.com.

Bryan T Grenfell (BT)

Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. tianhuaiyu@gmail.com christopher.dye@zoo.ox.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk grenfell@princeton.edu ruifuyang@gmail.com.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Oliver G Pybus (OG)

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. tianhuaiyu@gmail.com christopher.dye@zoo.ox.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk grenfell@princeton.edu ruifuyang@gmail.com.

Christopher Dye (C)

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. tianhuaiyu@gmail.com christopher.dye@zoo.ox.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk grenfell@princeton.edu ruifuyang@gmail.com.
Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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