Enhancing Models and Measurements of Traffic-Related Air Pollutants for Health Studies Using Dispersion Modeling and Bayesian Data Fusion.

The adverse health effects associated with exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) remain a key public health issue. Often, exposure assessments have not represented the small-scale variation and elevated concentrations found near major roads and in urban settings. This research explores approaches aimed at improving exposure estimates of TRAPs that can reduce exposure measurement error when used in health studies. We consider dispersion models designed specifically for the near-road environment, as well as spatiotemporal and data fusion models. These approaches are implemented and evaluated utilizing data collected in recent modeling, monitoring, and epidemiological studies conducted in Detroit, Michigan. Dispersion models, which estimate near-road pollutant concentrations and individual exposures based on first principles - and in particular, high fidelity models - can provide great flexibility and theoretical strength. They can represent the spatial variability of TRAP concentrations at locations not measured by conventional and spatially sparse air quality monitoring networks. A number of enhancements to dispersion modeling and mobile on-road emissions inventories were considered, including the representation of link-based road networks and updated estimates of temporal allocation of traffic activity, emission factors, and meteorological inputs. The recently developed Research LINE-source model (RLINE), a Gaussian line-source dispersion model specifically designed for the near-road environment, was used in an operational evaluation that compared predicted concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO For CO and NO The study results should be interpreted and generalized cautiously given the limitations of the data used. Similar analyses in other settings are recommended for confirming and extending our findings. Still, the study highlights considerations that are relevant for exposure estimates used in health studies. The ability of a dispersion model to accurately reproduce and predict a pollutant depends on the pollutant as well as on spatial and temporal factors, such as the distance and direction from the road, time-of-day, and day-of-week. The nature and source of exposure measurement errors should be taken into consideration, particularly in health studies that take advantage of time- activity information that describes where and when individuals are exposed to pollution. Efforts to refine model inputs and improve model performance can be helpful; meteorological inputs may be the most critical. For both dispersion and spatiotemporal statistical models, sufficient and high-quality monitoring data are essential for developing and evaluating these models. Our analyses using Bayesian data fusion models confirm the presence of spatially varying errors in dispersion model outputs and allow quantification of both the magnitude and the spatial nature of these errors. This valuable information can be leveraged in health studies examining air pollution exposure as well as in studies informing regulatory responses.

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