A Novel Risk Stratification Score for Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Middle-Aged, Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy Patients: The ESTIMATED Score.
Journal
The Canadian journal of cardiology
ISSN: 1916-7075
Titre abrégé: Can J Cardiol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8510280
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 2020
07 2020
Historique:
received:
28
07
2019
revised:
31
10
2019
accepted:
05
11
2019
pubmed:
7
4
2020
medline:
19
5
2021
entrez:
7
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We aimed to develop a risk score (LGE Based Prediction of SCD Risk in Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy [ESTIMATED]) based on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance to predict sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%. We recruited 395 consecutive middle-aged patients with NIDCM and performed 3-year follow-up for SCD events. The score was developed and verified in 295 primary prevention patients, and the predictive value was confirmed by comparing the SCD events between the high-risk patients stratified by the score and 100 secondary prevention patients. The ESTIMATED score (constructed by the LGE extent > 14%, syncope, atrial flutter/fibrillation, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, advanced atrioventricular block, and age ≤ 20 or > 50 years) showed good calibrations for SCD prediction in the derivation (C-statistic: 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.86) and validation set (C-statistic: 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.87). By the score, 20.3% of primary prevention patients were categorized as high risk (≥ 3 points), 28.1% as intermediate risk (2 points), and 51.6% as low risk (0-1 points) for 3-year SCD events (45.9% vs 20.1% vs 5.1%, P < 0.0001). The 3-year SCD events were also well in agreement with the score stratification in patients without implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. High-risk primary prevention patients selected by the score in the derivation and validation sets had 3-year SCD events comparable with that in secondary prevention patients (47.6% vs 40.6% vs 38.7%, P = 0.81). Our study derived and validated an LGE-based (ESTIMATED) risk score providing refined SCD prediction. The score may help to identify candidates for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator in patients with NIDCM.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
We aimed to develop a risk score (LGE Based Prediction of SCD Risk in Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy [ESTIMATED]) based on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance to predict sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%.
METHODS
We recruited 395 consecutive middle-aged patients with NIDCM and performed 3-year follow-up for SCD events. The score was developed and verified in 295 primary prevention patients, and the predictive value was confirmed by comparing the SCD events between the high-risk patients stratified by the score and 100 secondary prevention patients.
RESULTS
The ESTIMATED score (constructed by the LGE extent > 14%, syncope, atrial flutter/fibrillation, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, advanced atrioventricular block, and age ≤ 20 or > 50 years) showed good calibrations for SCD prediction in the derivation (C-statistic: 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.86) and validation set (C-statistic: 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.87). By the score, 20.3% of primary prevention patients were categorized as high risk (≥ 3 points), 28.1% as intermediate risk (2 points), and 51.6% as low risk (0-1 points) for 3-year SCD events (45.9% vs 20.1% vs 5.1%, P < 0.0001). The 3-year SCD events were also well in agreement with the score stratification in patients without implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. High-risk primary prevention patients selected by the score in the derivation and validation sets had 3-year SCD events comparable with that in secondary prevention patients (47.6% vs 40.6% vs 38.7%, P = 0.81).
CONCLUSIONS
Our study derived and validated an LGE-based (ESTIMATED) risk score providing refined SCD prediction. The score may help to identify candidates for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator in patients with NIDCM.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32249067
pii: S0828-282X(19)31433-3
doi: 10.1016/j.cjca.2019.11.009
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1121-1129Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.