The Exponentially Increasing Rate of Patients Infected with COVID-19 in Iran.
COVID19
Forecast
Iran
Journal
Archives of Iranian medicine
ISSN: 1735-3947
Titre abrégé: Arch Iran Med
Pays: Iran
ID NLM: 100889644
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Apr 2020
01 Apr 2020
Historique:
received:
25
03
2020
accepted:
27
03
2020
entrez:
10
4
2020
pubmed:
10
4
2020
medline:
15
4
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Coronavirus, the cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (COVID-19), is rapidly spreading around the world. Since the number of corona positive patients is increasing sharply in Iran, this study aimed to forecast the number of newly infected patients in the coming days in Iran. The data used in this study were obtained from daily reports of the Iranian Ministry of Health and the datasets provided by the Johns Hopkins University including the number of new infected cases from February 19, 2020 to March 21, 2020. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict the number of patients during the next thirty days. The ARIMA model forecasted an exponential increase in the number of newly detected patients. The result of this study also show that if the spreading pattern continues the same as before, the number of daily new cases would be 3574 by April 20. Since this disease is highly contagious, health politicians need to make decisions to prevent its spread; otherwise, even the most advanced and capable health care systems would face problems for treating all infected patients and a substantial number of deaths will become inevitable.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Coronavirus, the cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (COVID-19), is rapidly spreading around the world. Since the number of corona positive patients is increasing sharply in Iran, this study aimed to forecast the number of newly infected patients in the coming days in Iran.
METHODS
METHODS
The data used in this study were obtained from daily reports of the Iranian Ministry of Health and the datasets provided by the Johns Hopkins University including the number of new infected cases from February 19, 2020 to March 21, 2020. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict the number of patients during the next thirty days.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The ARIMA model forecasted an exponential increase in the number of newly detected patients. The result of this study also show that if the spreading pattern continues the same as before, the number of daily new cases would be 3574 by April 20.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Since this disease is highly contagious, health politicians need to make decisions to prevent its spread; otherwise, even the most advanced and capable health care systems would face problems for treating all infected patients and a substantial number of deaths will become inevitable.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32271595
doi: 10.34172/aim.2020.03
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
235-238Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.