Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
22 05 2020
22 05 2020
Historique:
received:
04
03
2020
accepted:
09
04
2020
pubmed:
16
4
2020
medline:
29
5
2020
entrez:
16
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32291278
pii: science.abb5793
doi: 10.1126/science.abb5793
pmc: PMC7164482
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
860-868Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : T32 AI007535
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U54 GM088558
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Type : CommentIn
Type : CommentIn
Type : CommentIn
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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