Diagnostic Accuracy of MCM5 for the Detection of Recurrence in Nonmuscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Followup: A Blinded, Prospective Cohort, Multicenter European Study.

Detection of MCM5 containing cells in urine has been shown to be indicative of the presence of a bladder tumor on primary diagnosis. In this study we evaluate diagnostic performance of ADXBLADDER in patients undergoing cystoscopic surveillance in nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer followup. A multicenter prospective blinded study was performed at 21 European centers with patients undergoing cystoscopy for nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer surveillance, diagnosed in the preceding 2 years. Urine was collected from all eligible patients and ADXBLADDER-MCM5 testing was performed. Performance characteristics were calculated by comparing MCM5 results to the outcome of cystoscopy plus pathological assessment. Of 1,431 eligible patients enrolled 127 were diagnosed with a bladder cancer recurrence. The overall sensitivity for the ADXBLADDER-MCM5 test in detecting bladder cancer recurrence was 44.9% (95% CI 36.1-54) with a 75.6% sensitivity for nonpTaLG tumors (95% CI 59.7-87.6). Specificity was 71.1% (95% CI 68.5-73.5). The overall negative predictive value was 93% (95% CI 91.2-94.5). However, ADXBLADDER was able to rule out the presence of a nonpTaLG recurrent tumor with a negative predictive value of 99.0% (95% CI 98.2-99.5). No statistically significant differences in the performance of ADXBLADDER were observed as a result of age or sex. This large blinded prospective study demonstrates that in the followup of patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer ADXBLADDER is able to exclude the presence of the most aggressive tumors with a negative predictive value of 99%. These results indicate that ADXBLADDER could be incorporated in the followup strategy of nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer.