Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 04 2020
21 04 2020
Historique:
received:
06
02
2019
accepted:
20
03
2020
entrez:
23
4
2020
pubmed:
23
4
2020
medline:
23
4
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32317633
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5
pii: 10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5
pmc: PMC7174334
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1918Références
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