Cancer Incidence Projections in Northern Ireland to 2040.
Journal
Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology
ISSN: 1538-7755
Titre abrégé: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9200608
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 2020
07 2020
Historique:
received:
24
01
2020
revised:
20
03
2020
accepted:
21
04
2020
pubmed:
26
4
2020
medline:
16
9
2021
entrez:
26
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Data on historic trends and estimates of future cancer incidence are essential if cancer services are to be adequately resourced in future years. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for all cancers combined and 19 common cancers diagnosed during 1993-2017 were determined by sex, year of diagnosis, and age. Data were fitted using an age-period-cohort model, which was used to predict rates in future years up to 2040. These were combined with population projections to provide estimates of the future case number. Compared with the annual average in 2013-2017, for all cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin) ASIRs are expected by 2040 to fall 9% among males and rise 12% among females, while the number of cases diagnosed is projected to increase by 45% for males and 58% for females. Case volume is projected to rise for all cancer types except for cervical and stomach cancer, with the annual number of cases diagnosed projected to more than double among males for melanoma, liver, and kidney cancers, and among females for liver, pancreatic, and lung cancers. Increased numbers of cancer cases is projected, due primarily to projected increases in the number of people aged 60 years and over. Projected increases will significantly impact the health services which diagnose and treat cancer. However, while population growth is primarily responsible, reduction of exposure to cancer risk factors, especially tobacco use, obesity, alcohol consumption, and UV radiation, could attenuate the predicted increase in cancer cases.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Data on historic trends and estimates of future cancer incidence are essential if cancer services are to be adequately resourced in future years.
METHODS
Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for all cancers combined and 19 common cancers diagnosed during 1993-2017 were determined by sex, year of diagnosis, and age. Data were fitted using an age-period-cohort model, which was used to predict rates in future years up to 2040. These were combined with population projections to provide estimates of the future case number.
RESULTS
Compared with the annual average in 2013-2017, for all cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin) ASIRs are expected by 2040 to fall 9% among males and rise 12% among females, while the number of cases diagnosed is projected to increase by 45% for males and 58% for females. Case volume is projected to rise for all cancer types except for cervical and stomach cancer, with the annual number of cases diagnosed projected to more than double among males for melanoma, liver, and kidney cancers, and among females for liver, pancreatic, and lung cancers.
CONCLUSIONS
Increased numbers of cancer cases is projected, due primarily to projected increases in the number of people aged 60 years and over.
IMPACT
Projected increases will significantly impact the health services which diagnose and treat cancer. However, while population growth is primarily responsible, reduction of exposure to cancer risk factors, especially tobacco use, obesity, alcohol consumption, and UV radiation, could attenuate the predicted increase in cancer cases.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32332030
pii: 1055-9965.EPI-20-0098
doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-20-0098
doi:
Types de publication
Historical Article
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1398-1405Informations de copyright
©2020 American Association for Cancer Research.